The storm is projected to approach the coast of Florida as a hurricane late Thursday into early Friday, although its landfall location, strength and timing are still coming into focus.
Florida is under a state of emergency, which Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) expanded from two dozen counties to the entire state Saturday afternoon, highlighting the sense of danger and potential for destruction.
Ian is predicted to peak as a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane west of the Florida Straits on Tuesday, which would make it the strongest September hurricane to pass through the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005. But confidence in the storm’s track and intensity decreases after that at the critical juncture when it will be approaching landfall.
Computer models are divided whether Ian will come ashore along Florida’s west coast Wednesday into Thursday or nearer the Panhandle Thursday into Friday.
Uncertainty “in the long-term track and intensity forecast is higher than usual,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Sunday. “Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week.”
Tropical storm conditions could reach south Florida as soon as early Wednesday and northern Florida by Thursday morning.
No alerts have been issued stateside, but it is likely that watches will be hoisted within the next 24 to 36 hours. Warnings will be raised when Ian’s track, and subsequent impact, becomes more certain.
At 11 a.m. Saturday, Ian was centered 300 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, while churning to the west-northwest at 14 mph. Its peak winds were up to 50 mph, a 5 mph increase since Saturday afternoon.
The Hurricane Center wrote that the storm’s satellite presentation is “gradually improving” and that ocean and atmosphere conditions “appear very conducive for significant strengthening.” The storm will be moving over exceptionally warm waters which are expected to fuel its intensification.
Hurricane warnings are up in Grand Cayman and western Cuba as the storm progresses to the west and northwest. The greater Havana area is under a tropical storm warning.
Forecast for Ian through Tuesday
The storm is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night or early Monday and reach “major” hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night before it reaches western Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center. Major hurricanes are Category 3 or above storms, packing sustained winds above 111 mph.
At greatest risk will be Cuba’s Guanahacabibes Peninsula, a roughly 60 mile-long sparsely-populated strip of land at the western tip of the island nation. The Roncali Lighthouse, built beginning in 1849, has stood sentry at the peninsula’s westernmost point and weathered dozens of hurricanes over the past century and a half.
The Hurricane Center estimates a 9 to 14 foot storm surge could sweep ashore, primarily near and east of the center where onshore winds push water against the coast. The surge represents a storm-driven increase in water levels above ordinarily dry ground.
Western Cuba also faces 6 to 10 inches of rain and locally as much as 16 inches, potentially triggering flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rainfall is also forecast over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, where 4 to 8 inches is possible.
Forecast for Ian beyond Tuesday
The storm’s path is still uncertain, but it appears headed to make landfall near the Florida Panhandle on Friday. Even before then, the Florida Keys and southern and western Florida are expected to get 2 to 4 inches of rain, with up to 6 inches possible through Wednesday morning.
The uncertainty in the forecast stems from an approaching tough, or dip in the jet stream, over the northern United States. Ian may or may not hitch a ride. If it does, it would be scooped north and east more quickly and come ashore as a more serious hurricane in the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.
If it “misses” its ride so to speak, it will meander northward, likely arriving in the northern Gulf when there will be an uptick in disruptive wind shear, or changing winds with height, and dry air.
In that scenario, weakening would occur before the storm made landfall closer to Friday morning, but Ian could still come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane. In this case, its greatest hazard would shift away from destructive winds and more toward storm surge. Due to the bathymetry of the ocean, or the shape of the sea floor, in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, even low-end hurricanes can bring a dangerous storm surge.
As the storm is drawn north late in the week into the weekend, the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may also see heavy rainfall along with a few tornadoes as the high-altitude spin of the storm passes, even after it loses hurricane status.
Sudden uptick in Atlantic storm activity
Ian is the sixth named storm to form so far this month, coming on the heels of a record-quiet August, during which not a single named storm formed. According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, only eight other Atlantic hurricane seasons, including each year between 2018 and 2021, have featured the formation of six or more named September storms.
Atmospheric scientists note that there does not exist a link between the number of named storms and human-induced climate change. However, those that form are expected to be skewed wetter and more intense, and also will be more prone to rapid intensification, because of rising oceans temperatures.
