Economic forecasts for this year have been based on a fall-off in energy prices. The threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine – and wider pressures in energy markets – now put this very much in question. Gas markets, the vital factor for Ireland, now show prices holding currently elevated levels right through this year and into 2023. If this is the way things pan out , the energy squeeze will continue on households and businesses, with big political and economic consequences.
There are bigger things at stake in the Ukraine crisis than energy prices. But in terms of the economic impact, energy supplies to Europe – and prices – will be the key conduit. And warnings signs in energy futures markets – where traders buy and sell contracts for future delivery – are already flashing.
