- Trade growth continues to decrease from previous
quarter due to macro headwinds across the region
- High Technology sector, and ocean exports of
Basic Raw Materials and Machinery Parts to grow moderately as multilateral ties
with ASEAN nations open new opportunities
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA – Media OutReach – 9 December 2019 – South Korea’s trade
is set to experience moderate growth in the machinery and technology
industries, offering some optimism amidst a continuing trade for the three-month
period ending in January 2020, according to data from the DHL Global Trade
Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence
and Big Data, revealed that South Korea’s trade outlook is set to decelerate
further to 43 points, below the threshold of 50 which indicates growth.
Despite a general slowdown in trade, South Korea’s outlook remains relatively
positive for certain key industries like High Technology, air imports of Temperature
or Climate Controlled Goods and ocean exports of Basic Raw Materials, and Machinery
“The results of this quarter’s index point
towards a protracted downturn in trade, driven mainly by contracting air trade.
However, the renewed resilience of trade in key sectors suggests that South
Korea’s economy may have reached
an inflection point. We expect the Index’s forecasts for Basic Raw
Materials, Machinery Parts and High Technology growth to be further enhanced in
coming quarters by the recent strengthening of the ASEAN-Republic
of Korea Free Trade Area, a move that will enhance air links,
infrastructure investment and smart cities development — all of which should
provide positive momentum for South Korea’s key electronics and manufacturing
industries.” said SP Song, Managing Director, DHL Global Forwarding Korea.
Steady but mild decline negatively affects all
countries, except India
The Barometer’s results also suggest that world
trade is expected to continue at moderate pace but further contract for the
next three months, driven by minor decreases in both air and containerized
ocean trade. Against previous quarters this year, the downward trend in trade
growth remains mostly stable, neither indicating an acceleration of the decline
nor a bottoming out of contractionary movement. All seven nations monitored by
the Barometer received indexes below 50 points except for India, where the
Barometer forecasts moderate growth of five points to 54 points for India. While Japan and the UK had been the only
countries with positive trade outlooks in the previous update in September, the
two countries record the highest losses in this period.
to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably end with moderate
world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid
growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing the Mount
Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air,”
Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says. “A countless number
of stable trade relations continues to flourish worldwide, despite smouldering
trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.”
About the Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator
is published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for end
of March 2020.
For more information on the DHL Global Trade
Barometer, please visit: logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb.
index is now also available for subscribers of the Bloomberg terminal by using
the code “DHLG <GO>”.
Note to editors:
The proposed Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will boost market access to products
and capital, and create the world’s largest regional trading bloc that will
account for more than 29.1 percent of global trade. Read more about Asia’s next trade pact and
its impact on global trade.
In the Global Trade
Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while
values below 50 indicate contraction.
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