We now have compound environmental crises and a darkening security situation interacting with other factors and the fallout of COVID-19. We have had two cataclysmic events occur in the last two years. The most serious pandemic in living memory has claimed millions of lives. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has killed many thousands of people. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of state-based armed conflicts roughly doubled, to 56, as did the number of conflict deaths. On top of that, we are experiencing an acute environmental crisis that is making a return to stability much harder. Species are becoming extinct 10–100 times faster than in the last 10 million years. Around a quarter of all species are at risk of extinction, pollinating insects are in rapid decline, soil quality is falling, and natural resources such as forests and fish continue to be exploited at unsustainable levels.
Credit: Martina Iverus
Environmental degradation and climate change can undermine peace. Exact causality is difficult to prove; but, for example, water scarcity can lead to social unrest, inflame tensions and — in some circumstances — increase the likelihood of armed conflict. Nearly half of the world’s 40 least peaceful countries are those experiencing the highest number of ecological threats.
We can point to several examples of this kind of interaction happening. Somalia has experienced drought and other effects of climate change, and when these combine with poverty, weakened governance and lack of preparedness, people have joined extremist groups. In Africa’s Sahel region, a growing population, expansion of farmland and drought have combined to push farmers and nomadic herders into direct competition for land and water resources. In Central America, climate change has weakened crop production, and combined with violence and corruption has driven migrants north, where they meet a securitized response at the United States border.
When it comes to protecting the environment, we cannot be proud of the results. Environmental damage, including climate change, mass extinctions and resource scarcity, affects the whole issue of peace and security. It is a formidable task that leaders must put at the top of the agenda, nationally and internationally. We’re seeing extreme weather events all over the world. We’re seeing rising sea levels. Just recently, we saw footage of a house floating away on the waves due to rising seas. And, if we talk about water availability, we can see too much water in some places and too little in others. Storms and heatwaves are becoming more common and more intense, and they reduce the yield of major food crops and increase the risk of large-scale harvest failures.
