Should The Knicks Trade Dennis Smith Jr., Even At A Significant Discount?

The Knicks had extremely high hopes for Dennis Smith Jr. when they traded for him ten months ago. Outside of future draft picks, DSJ was the only player New York received in exchange for Kristaps Porzingis.  Knicks president Steve Mills and GM Scott Perry were undoubtedly well aware Smith’s development would be crucial to determining the winner/loser of the single most important trade in their tenure.

At the time of the deal, Knicks fans had reasons to be optimistic they had finally acquired a talented, capable “point guard of the future.”  

Drafted ninth overall by the Mavericks in the 2017 draft, Smith entered the league with sky-high expectations, especially after he lit up the Las Vegas Summer League with viral dunks and highlight plays that showcased his absurd athleticism. When the NBA surveyed players and executives in August of 2017, Smith was selected as the favorite to win the 2017-18 Rookie of the Year award. 

Although he didn’t take home ROY hardware as a rookie in Dallas, Smith posted solid stats, averaging 15.2 points, 5.2 assists and 3.8 rebounds in 69 games. According to Basketball-Reference, he is one of just nine players in NBA history to tally at least 1,700 points, 600 assists, 400 rebounds and 100 made 3-pointers over his first 120 career games. The other eight players are Damon Stoudamire, Allen Iverson, Steve Francis, Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving. 

He’s also scored a fair number of those points in spectacular fashion due to his jaw-dropping leaping ability. Smith’s combination of athleticism, quickness, and explosion off the bounce are what scouts look for in lead guards, especially in today’s NBA, when having a point guard capable of penetrating into the paint is imperative. It’s also important to note that he just turned 21 last month

However, over two-plus seasons in the NBA, injuries, inefficiency on offense, and a lack of focus on defense have raised red flags. 

The biggest concern, and the most substantial impediment preventing him from ever fully developing his potential, is Smith’s lack of a reliable jumper. As a rookie, he shot just 22.3% on mid-range jumpers (8-16 feet from the basket). Over his first two seasons combined, he is just 173-of-547 (31.6%) from 3-point territory. After converting less than 70% of his free-throws as a rookie, he shot only 63.5% from the stripe as a sophomore. Over his first two pro seasons, he was one of only four guards to shot below 32% from downtown and 67% from the charity stripe.

The other problem hampering Smith’s development has been his inability to stay on the floor. As a rookie, he missed multiple games due to knee soreness, a left hip strain, a left knee effusion, and a sprained left ankle. Last season, he lost ten games due to a right wrist sprain and then dealt with a back ailment that sidelined him frequently both before and after the trade to New York.

Consequently, Smith reportedly spent this summer rebuilding his body and reconstructing his jumper. We saw plenty of clips Smith working with former assistant coach Keith Smart, implementing changes in his mechanics. And, unsurprisingly, at the start of training camp, Smith pledged that he was in the best shape of his life. 

Yet, DSJ tweaked his back in practice in early October and was forced to miss a couple of preseason games. He returned for the start of the regular season but clearly looked a step slow. Then, in late October, he stepped away from the team to be with his family for a couple of weeks following the passing of his stepmother. He returned to action in mid-November but never seemed to find a rhythm on either end of the floor.

He missed another game due to illness on December 11th and was ruled out of Thursday’s victory over the Nets due to a strained left oblique.

In addition to the continued injury issues, Smith has somehow been even less efficient on the offensive end when he has been healthy enough to play. His numbers this season are downright horrifying.

In his 21 appearances, Smith is averaging 5.2 points, 2.7 assists and 1.4 turnovers in 16.1 minutes, while shooting a putrid 32.5% from the floor, 29.3% from downtown and 50.% from the free-throw stripe. 

Two hundred fifty-six players have attempted more than 100 shots this season; DSJ is one of only three such players with a True Shooting percentage south of 40%.   

On the season, Smith’s Net rating of -17.7 is the worst on the team, by far. The Knicks have scored just 95.2 points per 100 possessions with DSJ on the floor. To put that number in context, New York scores 108.7 PPP with Elfrid Payton on the court, and over 104 PPP with Frank Ntilikina in the game.

In fact, per NBA.com, Smith is the only player in the NBA to log more than 200 minutes this season and post a cumulative Net Rating of -15.0 or worse. 

So, what do the Knicks do with their diminishing asset? A player they believed was a critical foundational piece when they acquired him less than a year ago. 

Unfortunately, it’s probably in the team’s best interest to chalk it up as sunk cost and trade DSJ as soon as possible, even if they have to do so at a substantial discount.

Even after he’s medically cleared from his latest ailment, Smith will have a tough time cracking the point guard rotation in New York. Elf Payton has been playing well of late, averaging 9.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 1.4 steals in 26.2 minutes over the Knicks last eight games. Ntilikina, serving as the primary backup to Payton, has established himself as the team’s best perimeter defender.  

If Smith is relegated to DNP-CD’s on a terrible team when healthy, his value league-wide will continue to plummet.

In retrospect, it appears the Mavs front office deserves a ton of credit for trading away DSJ at just the right moment; that elusive point in time when a young, unproven player’s potential still outweighs his flaws. Unfortunately, for the Knicks, the scales have tipped in the other direction, with Smith’s dubious downside exceeding his enticing upside.  

Nonetheless, other teams will undoubtedly be willing to kick the tires and inquire if New York is ready to dump him. After all, Smith is still a 21-year-old with latent athleticism and talent. There surely are GM’s and coaches throughout the league that feel they can develop his strengths and resuscitate his career. 

The question is, what would the Knicks be willing to accept in return?

According to Shams Charania of The Athletic, “rival teams believe Dennis Smith Jr. prefers a move from the Knicks. Several teams have made inquiries into the Knicks about Smith.”

In addition, SNY’s Ian Begley is reporting that the Minnesota Timberwolves are one of “several” teams interested in trading for DSJ. Per Begley, “it’s unclear what the Knicks would want back in a potential Smith trade. The degree of the Timberwolves’ interest in trading for him is also unknown. But one executive, speculating, said that getting a first-round pick back for Smith would be unlikely.” 

It’s certainly not surprising that the Wolves are unwilling to move a first-rounder, but scanning Minnesota’s roster, they don’t have a match in terms of salary for player swap either. Would the Knicks accept a pair of second-round picks in exchange for DSJ? 

Would it make more sense to package Smith with one of their veterans on an expiring contract? For instance, Marcus Morris had significant trade value; maybe include DSJ in a future Morris trade in exchange for a premium package of picks and/or young promising players. 

Or possibly swap Smith for another player failing to live up to expectations elsewhere? As I detailed earlier this month, players such as Mo Bamba, Zhaire Smith and Malik Beasley fall into this category. 

The trade deadline for the 2019-20 NBA season is February 6th. Stay tuned.