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Lockdowns, Supply chain bottlenecks, low margins to impact Alibaba’s Q4 earnings

Factors to Consider:

According to data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), online sales of physical goods declined ~1% Y/Y in April, down from ~2.5% Y/Y growth in March and +13.5% growth Y/Y in January/February (months combined due to Chinese New Year). Additionally, NBS reported total YTD online retail sales growth of 5.2% through April, a decline vs. 19-20% Y/Y in 2021; as expected, e-commerce outpaced overall retail sales, which only grew 0.8% YTD through April.

The company saw a massive dip in Alibaba’s income and margin in the last quarter. This margin decline could continue in the near term as the restrictions due to the pandemic are still being imposed on major cities.

The Key Metric

Investors will also focus on Alibaba’s annual active consumers in China, also called “active buyers.” This key metric is a measure of the number of users making purchases on its platform.

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