- Ocean imports and exports maintain momentum as key industries
experience recovery, causing trade growth index to rise
significantly
- India is the only country in the Global Trade Barometer with a
positive trade outlook for the next quarter
MUMBAI, INDIA – Media OutReach
– 6 December 2019 –
Strong ocean imports and exports will sustain India’s trade growth
over the three-month period ending in January 2020, making it the
only country out of the world’s seven largest economies with a
positive trade outlook according to data from the DHL Global Trade
Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade
developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data,
predict mildly positive growth for Indian trade with the country’s
Index rising five points to 54.[1]
The positive outlook is driven primarily by an uptake in ocean
imports of Basic & Industrial Raw Materials and Chemicals &
Products, coupled with a gradual revival in air exports of Consumer
Fashion Goods.[2]
In total, ocean trade grew by 10 points, maintaining India’s
positive outlook even as air trade forecasts experience relative
weakness.
“India has the strongest trade forecast this quarter and the
highest index value of all countries in the latest Global Trade
Barometer survey, followed closely by the United Kingdom and
Japan,” said Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding India. “This
highlights the underlying potential of India’s economy, which will
benefit from the government’s plan to invest
US$1.39 trillion (€1.26 trillion) in infrastructure projects. The
country’s commitment to establishing itself as a strategic maritime
hub with initiatives and investments
in coastal infrastructure appear to be supporting the Index’s
positive ocean trade outlook and will likely also contribute
positively to longer-term trade growth.”
Steady but mild decline negatively affects all countries, except
India
The Barometer’s results also suggest that world trade is expected
to continue at moderate pace but further contract for the next
three months, driven by minor decreases in both air and
containerized ocean trade. Against previous quarters this year, the
downward trend in trade growth remains mostly stable, neither
indicating an acceleration of the decline nor a bottoming out of
contractionary movement. All seven nations monitored by the
Barometer received indexes below 50 points except for India, where
the Barometer forecasts moderate growth of five points to 54 points
for India. While Japan and the UK had been the only countries with
positive trade outlooks in the previous update in September, the
two countries record the highest losses in this period.
“According to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably
end with moderate world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where
we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergone in recent
years was like climbing the Mount Everest. Now, we are on the
descent, but we are still breathing altitude air”, Tim Scharwath,
CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says. “A countless number of
stable trade relations continues to flourish worldwide, despite
smouldering trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.”
About the Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an
innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of
logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial
intelligence. The indicator is published four times a year and the
next release date is scheduled for end of March 2020.
For more information on the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please
visit: logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb
. The index is now also available for subscribers of the Bloomberg
terminal by using the code “DHLG <GO>”.
[1]
In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50
indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate
contraction.
[2]
Click here
for more information on the outlook for air freight and ocean
freight or the key sectors in India.
Note to editors:
The proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
will boost market access to products and capital, and create the
world’s largest regional trading bloc that will account for more
than 29.1 percent of global trade.
Read more
about Asia’s next trade pact and its impact on global
trade.
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