The most important risk factor for the business environment and governance of the country, facing the June electoral process, in which the Chamber of Deputies and 15 governorships will be renewed, is called Andrés Manuel López Obrador, warned the general director of Integralia Consultores, Luis Carlos Ugalde.
Based on the analysis “Ten political risks for 2021”, carried out by Integralia, the analyst highlighted, in conversation with EL FINANCIERO, that both the government’s failures in the containment and vaccination against COVID-19, as well as the president’s challenging strategy In front of the National Electoral Institute (INE) they represent a “very high” level of risk, which will not only prolong the health contingency, but will also polarize the campaigns and generate post-electoral conflicts.
According to the report, in the first two years of this administration, risk levels have increased to a “high” level in the concentration of power, legal uncertainty, government inefficiency and economic deterioration, which will adversely impact expectations. of return of investors, the profitability of companies and democratic stability.
“The Electoral Tribunal, which many see as an organization captured by the government, will have to make a decision, but eventually it will come to a very pronounced attrition, and this can lead to many governors and mayors beginning to meddle in the elections as well. and this can get out of control, “he said.
Main risks for 2021, according to IntegraliaEspecial
“That’s why we see it as an element that will lead to an election and very polarized campaigns. We believe that the President will continue to suggest that the INE is very expensive and can commit fraud on Morena’s candidates. A bit in the tone that Donald Trump did in the United States, “he added.
For the former president of the Federal Electoral Institute –current INE–, it is foreseeable that Morena will lose the qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and only reach an absolute majority, that is, 250 deputies plus one, which would deprive the President of the ability to modify the Constitution, that is, would not have the votes to disappear the autonomous bodies. “At Integralia we anticipate that Morena will lose the qualified majority. How much? We do not know. But a second containment block can be built in the Chamber of Deputies that, by the way, could reinforce the worn out containment block of the Senate ”, he anticipated.
The foregoing, he added, could lead to a scenario of confrontation and clash between the Executive and the Legislature, which could lead to accusations to Congress of obstruction and the temptation for the President to seek to govern through consultations, “that he tries to bypass Congress , simply, and say ‘the people and I are going to govern; and I am going to ask if they want us to disappear the plurinominal (deputies); and I want to ask the people if they want the INE to disappear, ‘then they will use that as an instrument of political pressure so that Congress does what it wants. ”
According to Luis Carlos Ugalde, there is concern that the Electoral Tribunal has made decisions based on pressure from the Presidency, which would lead to a very conflictive election.
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