CLIMATE CHANGE: TIME IS RUNNING OUT
oa’s mean annual temperature has increased by over 1 degree Celsius since the beginning of the 20th century till date (1901-2018), much of it between 1990-2018. The mean annual rainfall in Goa has increased by 68% over the period 1901-2015. With increasing rainfall the inter-annual rainfall variability in the state has also increased especially since 1970s. While mean annual rainfall in the state has increased, moderate to light rainfall days (IMD category I) in Goa have declined over 1901-2015 period, whereas very heavy and exceptionally heavy rainfall events (IMD category III) in the state have increased by a dramatic more than 100%.
Mean annual temperatures (model ensemble) in Goa may increase by around 2°C in 2030s compared to 1901-1950 period, and further to by around 4°C by 2080s under high emission scenarios. Goa will start experiencing heat waves (more than 40 degrees Celsius) beyond the 2040s, as maximum temperature increases by about 5°C towards the century end under high emission scenarios. Minimum temperatures are expected to rise even more by up to 8°C by the century end under the high emission scenarios. The mean annual rainfall in Goa is projected to slightly decline under high emission scenarios, which under low emission scenarios is projected to slightly increase.
The flood vulnerability analysis from the State reveals that 14.73% of the land is under 15 meter elevation, much of it in the coastal zones, and are severely vulnerable to flooding both from extreme rainfall events and sea-level rise. In terms of vulnerability from floods and sea-level rise the Talukas Salcete, Tiswadi, and Bardez most vulnerable.
In the context of Goa, communities living in low lying areas, informal settlements like slum population, people with disabilities and those whose livelihood dependents mainly on khazan lands are in particular the immediate and most vulnerable groups. Also, four coastal talukas of Bardez, Tiswadi, Mormugao, and Salcete, house about 80% of the population and are hubs of economic activity.
Bardez and Salcete talukas have both experienced erosion rates of more than 0.6 m/year while the erosion rate for Tiswadi was found to be above 0.3 m per year. These are also the most populated talukas and most prominent tourist spots, further increasing the risk of erosion in these talukas.
The SAPCC report mentioned that sea level rise has been experienced in some areas which has led to soil erosion, impacted access to sea beaches, disappearance of sea shells and fishes. Flooding of Khazan lands was specifically expressed as a concern while water level in creeks like those at Tarda was also reported to have increased.
“It is the moderate and light rainfall events that nourish life-forms and ecosystems, whereas very heavy and exceptionally heavy rainfall events create devastation and chaos to life-forms and ecosystems. Increasing frequency of very heavy and exceptionally heavy rainfall events in Goa is one of the key impacts of climate change witnessed in the state. There has been an increase in vector-borne diseases and various infectious diseases like influenza, bird flu, swine flu (and COVID-19),” the report stated.
UNDP predicts, Goa stands to lose a large percentage of its land area, including many of its famous beaches and tourist infrastructure, which are very significant to states’ socio-economic status. A one-metre rise in sea level, it is estimated, will affect 7 percent of Goa’s population and cause damage to the tune of Rs 8,100 crore.
Mitigation strategies – Transport sector
The State of Goa does not produce power. It purchases power from NTPC power plants except for some renewable energy based power plants like solar power plants. Thus, the direct Green House Gases (GHG) contribution of the State to national GHG inventory is not significant. Thus, the transportation sector becomes the most important sector in GHG management. Mitigation strategy has been developed for the transportation sector, demand-side energy management, agriculture, and waste sector.
“The transportation sector is the major source of emissions in Goa and has the maximum possibility for mitigation as well. Due to the large tourist population, which depends on taxis/motorbikes etc for transportation, their lies an opportunity to relook at the transportation sector from a different lens and identify options for mitigation which will also lead to decongestion and reduced pollution,” the SAPCC report stated.
Some of the mitigation measures proposed include development of a holistic policy for low emission sustainable transport system, electric mobility policy should be developed by the state, provisions should be made for non-motorised transportation in urban areas to decongest and reduce GHG emissions. The Goa State Subsidy for replacement of old Passenger Buses Scheme, 2001 should be implemented effectively.
It may be recalled that in January this year, The All Goa Private Bus Owners Association (AGPBOA) on Sunday alleged that the government had not cleared the fuel subsidy scheme, insurance scheme and subsidy for replacement of old private buses. The Association also said that the government is trying to regulate Rent-A-Bike scheme by reducing the number of two-wheelers to 10 per applicant.
The next set of proposals in transport sector made by NABARD consultancy service include need to identify alternate mode of fuel transportation in the mining area, explore the possibility of using CNG instead of petrol and diesel, use of solar power vessels for inland waterways, convert existing vessels to CNG vessels, make adequate parking space for vehicles.
The report has also called upon the government to provide interconnected public and non-motorized system for point to point connectivity.
Mitigation in the
Energy Sector
The energy sector in the context of Goa primarily represents the opportunity to reduce demand-side energy consumption and explore new opportunities for renewable energy generation. Goa must explore the possibility of tidal energy and further enhance mini-hydro potential.
“There should periodic Energy audit to improve energy consumption and operational efficiency of all government establishments. Industrial energy efficiency should be promoted through Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE’s) programmes. Incentivise energy efficiency for commercial and domestic users, develop programmes to develop awareness on saving of energy,” the report pointed out.
Mitigation in the Agriculture Sector
Agriculture and allied sectors contribute to GHG emissions due to the use of machinery, water, fertilizers, etc. Inadequate, utilization of resources increases emissions. Methane is one of the main GHG’s emitted in agriculture and cattle rearing activities.
“Focus initiatives to increase vermicomposting at the community level. Incentivize replacement of agricultural pumps with energy-efficient pumps and solar pumps. Farmers should be sensitised on optimal utilisation of water to reduce pump usage and reduce water wastage. Incentivise optimal utilisation of water pumps,” it stated.
Efforts should be made to promote organic manure, optimal utilization of fertilizers and pesticides should be encouraged, assist in utilisation of cattle and animal waste as manure and for biogas generation, promote biomass residue from agriculture to be used for power generation where it does not have an alternate use.
Mitigation in the
Waste Sector
The first major initiative is the collection of all the plastic waste across the National Highways and the second major initiative is setting up of Solid Waste Treatment Facility one each, in North Goa and South Goa.
“Minimise waste in the tourism sector by providing alternate and bio-degradable options for tourists. Incentivising disposal of plastic waste by providing ride coupons should be done. Tourist coupons should be generated in exchange for disposal or deposition of plastic waste at designated areas,” it mentioned.
Water Sector
Though Goa is situated in high precipitation zones, it has one of the lowest per capita freshwater availability. The draft state water policy 2015 presents various challenges faced by the state in the utilization of the water resources. The rivers are prone to tidal variations up to 40 km inland and seasonal variation in the availability of water.
Given these the key adaptation strategies for water sectors should include adaptation of water-related infrastructure, development of infrastructure to reduce the impact on water availability and enhance water security, developing systems for appropriate planning of water to ensure water supply to all, maintenance of water resources to avoid flooding and to keep related infrastructure functional during peak events and disasters.
Tourism Sector
Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors of the state. It receives tourists, three to four times the total population of the state. But almost entire tourist population congregates in the coastal areas only. There is a need to diversify the concentration of tourists by promoting community-based agri-tourism.
“Inland tourism should be developed in a climate-friendly manner, it is essential to undertake tourism infrastructure climate vulnerability assessment which would include climate proofing and disaster management for critical tourism infrastructure. Develop design standards for new tourist infrastructure and guide modification of existing vulnerable infrastructure. Enhance or modify and restructure the insurance for off-coast or water-related tourism activities and infrastructure like boats and ships which are vulnerable to climate change,” the NABARD consultancy service report indicated.
It highlighted the importance of incentivising use of eco-friendly measures in the tourism sector by facility providers. Single-use plastic should be banned with credible alternates in tourism activity. The government should provide extensive infrastructure and encourage the use of non-motorized transport by tourists which should form a part of an overall climate-friendly tourist mobility plan.
“Environmental clearance for large tourism projects/hotels in Goa could include climate mitigation and adaptation plan and climate disaster preparedness plan. Reconsider the coastal development plan or zone for new construction based on the climate predictions on sea-level rise, flooding, and erosion,” the report added.
Mining Sector
Mining in Goa is primarily focused on the sand and iron ore. Sand mining is directly influenced by the growth of the construction sector, does increase the sensitivity of the coastal system to coastal hazards.
“A comprehensive study of hydro-geology of underground water should be carried out independent mining audits to ensure compliance with environment clearances and other parameters. Explore and provide treated water for mines or alternate sources. Resource efficiency and circular economy concept must be incorporated into the construction sector to reduce pressure on the sand as a resource,” the NABCONS proposed plan stated.
Agriculture and allied sector
Goa has only one agro-climatic zone i.e. west coast plains and ghat region and the State primarily depends on rain-fed agriculture. The agriculture sector is facing challenges like the decline in interest towards agriculture, erosion of soil and deterioration of soil quality of khazan lands.
A strategy has to be formulated to compensate and identify new means or alternate skills for the owners of khazan lands as the probability of submergence due to climate change increases with passage of time.
“To mitigate impact of climate change on farming sector, maximize the agricultural land utilization by including fallow land for agriculture. Climate Research in Agriculture should be promoted by development of regional knowledge, development of climate risk indicators, acceptable coping ranges of the sector and specific crops, which are critical to improving climate risk management,” it proposed.
Overall investments in agricultural research and development should be increased. Income of farmers should be increased through credible, certified organic farming and market connections.
“Fisheries management is an important component here. It should include integration of fisheries and aquaculture management with coastal zone management, to increase the coping ability of small communities to sea-level rise. Breed fishes which can withstand higher temperatures,” NABCONS proposal informed.
Livestock management should be done by breeding temperature tolerant species, and providing temperature resistant livestock shelter. The ICAR Goa would be the primary research organization which will work in conjunction with and State agriculture department. Similarly, Fisheries board, animal husbandry, and associated bodies would work together on the other aspects.
Forest and biodiversity
Goa is the smallest state with just 3702 sq. km. of geographical area is having a good forest cover with 1,225.12 sq. km of recorded Government Forest which is over 33% of the total geographical area of the State. Out of this 62% is designated as 7 Protected Areas, 6 biodiversity-rich and ecologically sensitive Western Ghats and one in Mangrove forest at Chorao island.
There is no further potential to increase the forest cover of the state, however, there is a possibility to increase the green cover and increase the quality of the forest by increasing the carbon content. States first biodiversity heritage site has been registered at Purvatali Rai located in Bicholim Taluka.
Identify and explore natural mechanisms like increased mangroves or sea walls etc. to guard against sea level rises.
“The strategies for Goa with respect to forest and biodiversity should include enhancement of the forest quality, restoration and increase of coastal defence mechanism. Prepare a strategy to prevent and control forest fires. Plan for afforestation and plantation outside the forest areas, support private forest owners in the sustainable management of their forests and derive economic benefit,” the report said.
Human Health
Goa has 13 government hospitals with 3000 beds and 29 community/primary health centres and 30 dispensaries. It has about 2756 beds in private hospitals. The changing climate has increased the occurrence of diseases like dengue and introduced new diseases like Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD).
“Prepare an action plan to reduce the climate change related health impacts. It is important to develop an IT enabled system to inform the public on possible and actual disease outbreak. Study and map new and emerging diseases in the state concerning climate change. Prepare a heatwave action plan, develop a system to predict disease outbreak, assess the adequacy and resilience of health infrastructure to climate change,” NABCONS report suggested.
Habitat
Around 62% of Goa’s population lives in cities. About 80% of the state population lives in four coastal talukas of Bardez, Tiswadi, Mormugao, and Salcete. To be able to effectively meet the requirements of the growing population and economic activity in these talukas, it is essential to not only prepare effective land use plan but also to provide and maintain water and sanitation services along with transportation services, solid waste management and meet the energy demand.
Climate based infrastructure vulnerability assessment of critical services is very crucial. There should be development of a plan for the resilience of vulnerable structure associated with critical services. Redesigning the regional land use planning maps of most vulnerable areas after considering climatic factors is an essential step going ahead.
“it is also essential to identify measures like creating flood control gates for controlling flooding events due to various aspects like the upward flow of water into the rivers, development of climate-based disaster management plan, implementation of the solid waste management plan. Enhance internal waterways for transportation,” the NABCONS proposal stated.
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of SAPCC
Implementation of SAPCC would require the state government to channelize a significant amount of investment. Hence, it is essential to measure the effectiveness, efficacy, and efficiency of SAPCC during the implementation phase.
A robust monitoring and evaluation system will ensure that the progress of implementation is appropriately measured and captured, provide accountability for implementation and also to draw lessons for the future from the measures being implemented.
As measures to contain and adapt to climate change are multi-dimensional and may have constantly changing climatic parameters, a robust M &E system will provide a way forward to strengthen the SAPCC periodically
State internal finance
The total expenditure of the state is estimated at Rs.39640.53 crore. On the expenditure side, Social Services account for Rs. 4732.61crore i.e. 40.33% of the estimated total expenditure, followed by Economic Services at Rs.3475.38crore or (29.61%) and General Services at Rs.3528.05crore (30.06%). It has a revenue surplus of INR 455 crore. Grant-in-aid &contribution from central government is Rs 1249.68 crore.
State departments are carrying out activities that directly or indirectly contribute towards SAPCC i.e. climate mitigation and/ or adaptation. For example, switching to LED lights in Panjim, and utilising power generated at Saligao solid waste treatment plant.
“However, in the absence of any mechanism to account for expense under climate change, the expenditure on climate change is currently unaccounted. Hence, there is a need to establish a mechanism to identify states’ current expenses on items that contribute towards climate change and the source of current finance. There is a need to identify own resources, market, and insurance option which can further contribute to the climate change budget of the State,” the report proposed.
