New
Zealand’s first nationwide climate change risk stocktake has
highlighted ten areas of most concern.
The Climate
Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act 2019 included a
requirement for a National
Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) every six years,
with a national adaptation plan developed two years after
each risk assessment.
Of the 43 risks identified, ten
that require urgent action in the next six years include
those to coastal ecosystems, exacerbating social inequities
and drinkable water supplies.
The SMC asked experts
to comment on the assessment.
Associate Professor
Janet Stephenson, Director, Centre for Sustainability,
University of Otago, comments:
“The NCCRA report is
timely and doesn’t pull punches on the serious impacts
that NZ faces from the impacts of unmitigated climate
change. The risk assessment is based on a high-emissions
trajectory, and this is entirely appropriate as
unfortunately the world is currently heading in this
direction. NZ has an important part to play in global GHG
reductions – we punch above our weight in influence – but
ultimately the biggest driver of the global GHG trajectory
is the political ambitions of major emitters such as China,
USA and Russia. We have to prepare for the worst and plan
for a significantly impacted future.
“The reports
highlights the extreme risks we face in social, economic,
built environment, ecological and governance arenas. With
‘major’ and ‘extreme’ impacts’ identified, action
is urgently needed to prepare and build resilience. As the
report points out, we are knowledge-deficient in many areas,
but this should not be a barrier to starting to embed
climate response into every decision made at every level,
from central and local government to businesses and
households.
“What the report doesn’t do is highlight
the additional challenge of building climate resilience in
the global financial context. It is well-established that
investing now for mitigation and adaptation is far more
cost-effective than waiting until the impacts of climate
change are even more devastating than they are today. But
the shorter-term global economic impact of Covid, together
with the longer-term costs of climate change impacts on
global economies, have implications for New Zealand’s own
financial situation. There is a danger that this will put us
off making the necessary investments now, but instead pass
on the costs and degraded environment to our children and
grand-children. In a nation that prides itself on fairness,
this cannot be countenanced.
“New Zealand’s
successful Covid response has shown the advantage in moving
‘fast and hard’ to solve an impending crisis rather than
waiting. The next step following NCCRA is the National
Adaptation Plan which won’t be out for a couple of years.
That’s too far away. We need to have serious political
attention to be paid to taking action on this impending
crisis long before then.”
No conflicts of
interest.
Professor Ilan Noy, Chair in the
Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Victoria
University of Wellington, comments:
“I do think that
by focusing on this list of risks, which is useful and
comprehensive with regards to the local direct impact of
climate change, we might be ignoring the biggest elephant in
the room; namely the impact of climate change
internationally and, through these international channels,
on us. The pandemic crisis has shown us that even when we
can get our house in order, our economy is very exposed to
what happens in the rest of the world. Climatic change in
the magnitude that is contemplated by this report (3 degrees
by the end of the century) will lead to massive changes in
global markets, geo-strategic re-alignments, global
movements of people (refugees, conflicts), and global risks
of extreme events, that will have implications for NZ that
will most likely dwarf many of the (justified) concerns
expressed by this report.”
No conflict of
interest.
Belinda Storey, Managing Director at
Climate Sigma, and Manager of the Whakahura: Extreme
Events and the Emergence of Climate Change Programme,
comments:
“It is good to be able to
celebrate a true milestone for Aotearoa New Zealand, with
this assessment. Up until now, we have lagged almost a
decade behind other countries in not having a national risk
assessment for climate change.
While the report looks
at climate out to 2100, by applying an engineering lens, the
assessment could bias the national adaptation plan to
solutions that reduce short-term risk only. The hope is the
next iteration of this assessment can shift our focus more
to reducing long-term residual risk.
“This
assessment is key in deciding the path of Aotearoa New
Zealand’s future and it is vital that it doesn’t
constrain future assessments. By necessity, due to the short
timeframe of this assessment, it is only a high-level review
of a very complicated issue. In particular, by naming a
‘top ten’ of risks it narrows the focus dangerously away
from other issues that may not have been fully identified by
the authors.
“We now need to dig deeper into the
foundations of our national climate change risks to look at
the long-term implications and into wider social and
economic issues.
“In my first read of the assessment
it strikes me as light on finance. Finance can be a key
lever in adaptation to climate change – for example a
bank’s decision to require higher initial deposits and
shorter mortgage periods for flood-prone houses may have
more impact than local government’s attempt to constrain
development in hazardous locations by recording the extent
of sea-level rise in district plans.
“Last year, Te
Herenga Waka: Victoria University of Wellington was funded
by the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment’s
Endeavour Fund for a five-year programme examining Extreme
Events and the Emergence of Climate Change. This will be a
critical contributor to future national risk assessments and
we look forward into expanding the risk assessment to
examine the impact more deeply.”
No conflict of
interest.
Sally Owen (Te Rarawa ki Hokianga &
Pākehā), Disaster and Climate Change Economics Researcher,
Te Herenga Waka | Victoria University of Wellington,
comments:
“This National Climate Risk Report
is a first cut at summarising climate risks to Aotearoa.
This is a very positive step for Aotearoa New Zealand’s
future resilience and an important milestone.
“It’s
encouraging to read the authors have attempted to engage
widely and that the authors note they have drawn on an
interdisciplinary group of experts. I am happy to see that
the authors have acknowledged the importance of Māori
interests.
“My concern is that the nature of this
first (quickly-done and internationally-led) piece of work
entrenches a process of categorisation, engagement and
prioritisation which does not adequately take into account
the holistic nature of the risks, or the particular
challenges and vulnerabilities for Aotearoa New
Zealand.
“My primary critique after a first quick read
would be that the top ten risks were chosen by ranking the
lists of risks in each of five domains (natural environment,
built environment, human, economy and governance) and then
taking the top two for each and calling these the top ten.
Clearly, the top two risks to ‘governance’ are likely not as
important to most rangatahi as the majority of risks within
the natural and people categories.
“I’m also
interested to read the engagement documentation in detail.
Engagement processes tend to involve only those who can
appear on a certain day and time at a certain location, and
even for this group, who is heard depends on who has a
certain amount of confidence to speak in front of a group.
They also tend to be one-off, project-based engagements.
This is not effective engagement, particularly for
representation by youth, Māori, migrants, renters, people
in small towns, and anyone struggling with mental health
issues. I welcome the suggestion of a Māori-led
accompanying assessment.
“I also see that the next
Climate Risk Assessment won’t be done for six years. I’m a
little shocked this won’t be done more regularly – isn’t an
inventory of climate risks something which could be
performed annually? Perhaps there is scope for the Climate
Commission to take this on.
“Finally, I’d critique
that the three assessment timeframes for ‘urgency’ and
‘consequence’ ratings per risk were: 1) now, 2) in 50 years,
and 3) in 100 years. Climate risks are not linear, and with
so much dependent on what happens in the next few years, I
would have liked to see a non-linear assessment timeframe
such as: now, in five years, in ten, in fifty, and in one
hundred years.”
No conflict of
interest.
Associate Professor Anita Wreford,
Lincoln University; Science Lead, Impacts and Implications,
Deep South Challenge, comments:
“New Zealand’s
National Climate Change Risk Assessment is very important,
as it is the first attempt to systematically review the
available evidence and identify and prioritise the risks of
climate change across the country. New Zealand urgently
needs to begin strategically planning for climate change in
a coherent way, and this assessment is the first stage in
enabling that to occur.
“The assessment is critical in
identifying the priority areas to focus on for adaptation
(and a National Adaptation Plan will need to be developed
within two years of the Risk Assessment).
“The
assessment also identifies areas where there are gaps in
evidence and highlights the need to develop our evidence
base and understanding of what climate change will mean for
our key economic sectors, natural environment, communities,
and our governance arrangements.
“With my Deep South
Challenge: Changing with our Climate hat on, I want to
highlight that much of our Challenge research has been drawn
on in the creation of the Technical Report, and feeds into
many of the priority areas. For example, Lisa Ellis
(University of Otago) and Catherine Iorns (Victoria
University of Wellington) have both led research projects
investigating issues around maladaptation and social
inequity, and Janet Stephenson (University of Otago) has
done important work looking into community well-being and
social cohesion throughout current and future displacement
because of climate-related flooding. Ryan Paulik (NIWA) is
leading work mapping coastal and river flooding to national
infrastructure. James Hughes (also on the NCCRA project
team) has completed research to understand risks to our
storm and wastewater systems.
“While not directly
cited in the Technical Report, much of our Deep South
Challenge Vision Mātauranga research speaks directly to
multiple significant risks raised by the Assessment,
including Huhana Smith’s work on coastal indigenous
ecosystems and Shaun Awatere’s work on diversifying land use
on Māori land.
“The Deep South Challenge continues to
focus our efforts at the pointy end of climate adaptation,
and this Assessment will also enable us to further
prioritise future research, for the future security of
Aotearoa New Zealand.”
Conflict of interest
statement: I was part of the NCCRA project
team.
Dr Judy Lawrence, senior research fellow,
Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of
Wellington, comments:
“This first NCCRA represents
great progress in identifying the climate change risks that
uniquely affect New Zealand. The Assessment helps us focus
attention on where adaptation will be necessary and
when.
“It is comprehensive in that it covers all
domains affected while also highlighting where we need more
understanding of the risks e.g. areas of the natural
environment, cascading and compounding impacts and future
social and economic change.
“The assessment was
undertaken using two scenarios: a low emissions (RCP 4.5)
and a high emissions scenario both at the 50th percentile.
This enabled the assumptions around urgency of action to be
stress tested for their sensitivity to different plausible
futures. There is urgency required under both scenarios.
(Refer para 2.1.8 of the Technical Report).
“The
Assessment provides an essential evidence base for the
National Adaptation Plan to be developed which can now be
underpinned by the RMA Review Panel Recommendations released
last week to help fill statutory barriers to effectively
addressing many climate change risks identified in the
Climate Change Risk Assessment.
“All the ducks are
beginning to be lined up for the implementation of coherent
adaptation across New Zealand.”
Conflict of
interest: NCCRA Author and Governance Domain Lead;
Coordinating lead Author IPCC AR6 Working Group 2 Impacts
Adaptation Vulnerability; Climate Change Commissioner (the
views expressed do not represent those of the Climate Change
Commission)
Dr Andrew Tait, chief scientist
climate, atmosphere and hazards, NIWA,
comments:
“Several NIWA scientists were involved in
producing Aotearoa New Zealand’s first National Climate
Change Risk Assessment. The process involved working closely
with multiple partners and stakeholders to identify
projected climate change hazards and vulnerabilities to
these hazards across five domains.
“The key risks
identified in the report clearly show where we need to focus
our climate change impacts and adaptation scientific
research over the coming years to reduce our nation’s
vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity, something NIWA
is committed to doing.
“We look forward to the next
phase of work on a National Adaptation Plan which will guide
the way climate change adaptation measures are evaluated and
implemented in a consistent, scalable and evidence-based way
and envisage an era in the not-too-distant future when we
can manage and systematically mitigate the climate change
risks we collectively face.”
No conflict of
interest
declared.
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