The
beginning of 2020 brought a wild card entry into global strategic equations in
the form of Coronavirus Pandemic, with Wuhan being the initial epicentre in December
2019. China will continue to be accused to have done
global damage by hiding crucial timely information from rest of the world to be
able to respond to COVID-19. China has gone through full cycle of initially
hiding it, being late in quarantining affected people, not being able to prevent
community transfers causing exponential rise in affected cases in the beginning,
taking harsh measures to control it after peaking, bringing down the affected
cases, declaring victory over pandemic, reopening lockdowns and boosting
‘COVID-19 Economy’ over ‘Health Silk Route’. The trends in January and February
suggested a sheer drop in Comprehensive National Power (CNP) of China with
combined effect of US-China trade war, failing BRI and COVID-19. The last week
of March 2020 saw the epicenters of COVID-19 shifting westwards with US, Europe
and UK emerging to be worst affected, entering stage three of the pandemic
cycle and China posing itself to be helping the world to combat the pandemic, trending
a comparative steep rise in its CNP, by pushing down everyone else. Rest of the
world continues to be engaged in protecting its citizens in their critical
phase of their pandemic cycle, rightly looking at saving its citizens with
every possible means as first priority, even if it amounts to taking Chinese
help, leaving out the blame game for later occasion.
What does Global shift in Epicenters of COVID-19
Indicate?
By March 30, 2020, 22:07 GMT, the coronavirus
COVID-19 has affected200 countries and territories around the world and two
international conveyances. The worldometer indicates
over 7.8 lakh cases of coronavirus with over 37,000 deaths and over 1.6 lakh
recoveries. The WHO puts the death rate continues to be low but the biggest danger
being faced by the mankind is its exponential rise due to community transfers.
USA has emerged to be the largest epicenter of COVID-19 having more than 19
percent of global confirmed cases with nearing three thousand deaths,
earmarking $2.2trillion allocation for combating the pandemic. Europe led by
Italy (with over one lakh cases and 11,500 deaths overtaking China in number of
cases) closely followed by Spain, Germany, France, Iran and UK. The biggest
jolt suffered is the number of deaths on March 30, 2020 counting 913, 812, 418,
385, 247 in Spain, Italy, France US and UK respectively. All these are cases of
taking the pandemic lightly initially resulting into quick entry into third stage
of community transfer. Now most countries in the world are struggling for
capacity building to take the challenge of peak period, which is yet to come.
This lock down/quarantining patients/suspects has brought global
economic/commercial productivity to almost a grinding halt.
China was quick to declare that it has conquered
the disease with reporting 75,700 recovered
cases, only31 fresh cases, four fresh deaths and only 2466 active cases.(March 30, 2020, 22:07 GMT)as reported by the National Health Commission
(NHC) of China. Considering Chinese credibility, these figures cannot be taken
at its face value, because some media reports of sudden silencing of much more
mobiles connections, restrictions on reporting COVID-19 cases do create a doubt
as to what exactly is happening in China. The community lock downs, and
stringent measures of social distancing helped China in flattening the trend.
If we add the unreported cases the potential of second cycle of pandemic in
China cannot be ruled out. Chinese effort of shifting soft power balance is
also evident from alleged effective use of its influence and media to propagate
conspiracy theory against US and later trying to shift the blame to Italy using
paid media, think tanks and institutions. The world however will continue to
accuse China for this pandemic, with many legal notices already filed against
it globally.
China cannot deny that by its own admission, the
coronavirus broke out in China late last year whereas Wuhan was locked down on January 23.The US efforts to evacuate
its people at that point of time were seen as ‘triggering panic reaction’ by
Beijing, which had already over-delayed global response by then. China tried to
shift the narrative to the belligerent superpower wrangling between Beijing and
Washington great power competition, viewing each other through a lens of
conspiracy theories, hostility, trading stinging barbs on everything from the
origin of the virus, permitting medical experts to visit Wuhan to who should be
blamed for the pandemic. China and US were already at lowest trust level over
issues, such as the trade war, South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and
Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, hence the same narrative was used by China to
confuse the world and shift global anger away from it. With evidences
destroyed, denying access to global bodies, the script of global pandemic was
already written. China has a reason to be keen to repair its damaged global
reputation caused due to mishandling of the crisis in the initial stage, with
exploding infections around the world in last two months, possible loss of face,
ensuing disrespect of other countries; hence it behaved so assertively in the diplomatic repairs
including ‘Mask Diplomacy’. The slow reaction and reluctance to lock down by US
might show that the US-China competition is moving China’s way, but the Chinese
follies of making the world suffer by their late reporting may not put Xi
Jinping in comfortable position either, although it’s too early to
predict.
Trade War to Mask diplomacy and Health Silk
Route
The CNP of a country is a combination of hard
and soft power and includes sum of economic, military, technological, human
resource, diplomatic and other levers of power. China claiming to have
successfully encountered COVID-19, has kickstarted its industry after being the
cause of paralysis of industrial power of everyone else, with focus on largest
emerging demand of medical equipment related to combating COVID-19. After IMF
Chief’s revelation that the global economy has entered recession, which could
possibly be worst of its kind, China got a new lifeline to its economic revival
with a competitive advantage in comparison to others.Chinese economy seems to be
benefitting from others peril, with factories commencing work at 66 percent
efficiency including foreign
companies like Apple, domestic flights commencing in most areas, life limping
back to normal and upsurge in demand with more people in markets. China after exporting the pandemic
globally, is now making best of COVID19 economic model by switching from failing BRI to COVID19
related production. It is also disposing COVID related equipment surplus to
mute expected accusations of risking humanity.China
has thus tried to benefit itself not only in comparative economic terms, but
also shift the equation in soft power, by projecting itself as better resource
provider in this crisis.China is also trying to economically benefit from the monopolistic
opportunity from the crisis by focusing its manufacturing base on production of
testing kits, personal protection kits, ventilators and other crucial medical
equipment. China, therefore leads the global supply chain with other major
manufacturers paralyzed due to the pandemic, although like BRI, its reliability
is suspected, due to the fact that five countries have reported supply of
defective equipment.
Why is the World Silent?
The fact that Coronavirus was detected, and it spread
exponentially in Wuhan, China may find difficult to prevent the accusations
from the world, angered by sufferings caused due to pandemic. It is however
understandable that not many have started blaming China, due to their domestic
compulsion and priorities to check the exponential rise in COVID-19 cases,
instead of involving in blame game for the time being. Most countries are also
expecting Chinese assistance in their fight against the pandemic, as China is
seen to have controlled the same, having gone through the peak of infection and
successfully controlled it. Most countries also hope that a suspected creator of the virus is in
best position to find antidote and help in combating it. Countries also do not
want to disturb the supply chain of medical equipment from China at this
juncture. The outcome of G20 virtual Summit was also on the same lines, wherein
the G20 leaders issued a statement at the end of the summit calling for a
coordinated global response to fight the coronavirus pandemic and adopting
measures to protect the global economy, minimize disruptions in trade and take
steps to enhance global coordination. The G20
leaders pledged to inject $5 trillion into the global economy to reduce the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. I do feel
that this issue of holding China accountable will not be dead, but re-appear
sometime in future. There are already few lawsuits already filed against China
for the same and some more may be in the offing.
On a practical note, it is understandable that
the world cannot fight this pandemic without global cooperation, which includes
China. It owes responsibility to act first and help others with capacity to
fight the Coronavirus, after letting the genie out of bottle, more so when the US
has to focus inwards due to looming domestic crisis of COVID-19. It’s also in
China’s interests to act to repair and restore its global image. Curbing media
will not suppress global criticism. If technologically advanced countries canutilize
their capacities, especially on joint research and development of vaccine, and
strengthening the global value chain of supplies of medical equipment, it will
help the humanity.
Credibility of UN Organizations?
The pandemic has also exposed the Chinese
influence in global bodies claiming to be neutral and serving for humanity. WHO
knew about the outbreak of coronavirus in January 2020 and declared it as pandemic
only on March11,2020, losing precious time for the world to respond, presumably
under pressure from China? In an interview on the question of helping Taiwan,
the WHO officer fumbled and did not reply, under pressure of ‘One China Policy’.
How can WHO claim to serve humanity leaving out Taiwanese population? In recent
G20 virtual Summit chaired by Saudi Arabia, the group has been too generous to
WHO in agreeing to extend support to strengthen its mandate in the fight
against pandemic including delivery of diagnostic tools, treatments, medical
supplies and vaccines, because their services are urgently needed at this
juncture, but it needs to be held accountable once the crisis is over.
United Nation Security Council (UNSC) has not
found it relevant to discuss about it and even have virtual consultation on
this pandemic, because China is a P5 country, chairs UNSC for March 2020 and
the monthly Chair decides the agenda. It never felt the need to investigate
when Wuhan was under lock down and writings of the potential pandemic were on
the wall even earlier. UNSC certainly requires restructuring because in the
current system China or any P5 country in its place, with its veto power can
get away easily, even after putting humanity to risk. The suspicion over
COVID-19 being a product of Chinese biological weapon research in Wuhan, could
have been settled if China would have allowed investigation by world bodies.It
is too late to put the trust back now, after accusations of China having
destroyed the evidences and continuing to change the narrative besides other
diversionary tactics.
Will it lead to Changed World Order?
Thinking positively, even if the world is able
to fight this pandemic successfully, the global strategic equation will never
remain the same. Coronavirus pandemic has exposed weaknesses of China, US and
world organizations to the humanity. While China can be accused of lack of
transparency in handling the COVID-19 initially, the US can be accused of
taking it lightly and reacting late enough, not to be able to help countries,
which do not have requisite capacities to fight it. The idea of putting
national interest over survival of humanity, and appearing to be inward
looking, will lower the confidence of world community in US as well as China.
The western countries led by US have been used to fighting the strategic
competition by controlling trade and financial system as well as power of
alliance, but unpredictable events like this pandemic, climate change, elements
of non-contact warfare can change the entire equation. US may also realize that
it was a mistake to propagate China as global manufacturing hub, and it now
faces a grave challenge from this manufacturing giant with key digital technologies.
China can also not be on a comfortable ground, because the autocratic model
cannot work for eternity, as the magnitude of external and internal
dissent/public anger cannot be estimated now. While China may feel to be recovering
and compliment itself to have fought it better than democratic countries, but
the success of South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong nullifies
that claim. It also remains to be seen in future that China has pushed many countries
against itself or otherwise. The world will also realize its mistake of putting
all eggs in Chinese basket and hopefully a reverse flow may occur post
pandemic. The credibility of UN is at
stake, which is increasingly been seen as political tool of P5. In my opinion
unless it undergoes a drastic reformation, especially the UNSC, there will be
many countries ignoring its relevance and resolutions. With a threat of second
cycle of COVID-19, no one can be sure that who is better placed in the future
strategic equation.
What is the role of India?
India has the second largest population in the
world next to China, which claims to have got over its peak period of pandemic.
Indian efforts have been appreciated so far. WHO and the global community feels
that densely populated countries like India will determine “the future of this
pandemic”?The latest epicenters are US and Europe, yet the world is anxious about
Indian fight against COVID-19, because of extremely high population density,
possible administrative difficulties in tackling the pandemic and logistics
attached with the lockdown. India, as a developing country, besides combating
pandemic, faces a bigger challenge feeding, administering, managing migrating
population, implementing social distancing and healthcare for a large number of
people including unorganized sector workers, in view of its limited
infrastructure. While there is no need to panic with over 1250 cases identified
and 32 deaths so far, but its capacity to isolate communities is the biggest
challenge in the world, which cannot be combatted without public participation.
The low figures of reported cases so far, are subject to testing rate and India
is yet to improve its recovery cases which are relatively low (Below 10%
against global average of 20%). The death rate is low so far, but the main
challenge lies ahead, as the curve has not flattened as yet. India needs to
ensure not to enter into community spread (next stage) of COVID19outbreak.Indians
need to follow all instructions from the Government and health specialists to
ensure that it remains low. Although a lot is being done by the government and
other agencies, the public and private sectors have to jointly boost its handling
capacity in the golden period of two weeks, otherwise speed of infection will
overtake speed of capacity building of the country to handle it. Each person has
to play his/her role, as COVID-19 cannot be combated without people’s
participation.
