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Can Lockheed Martin shrug off supply chain woes to post Q2 earnings beat?

Lockheed Martin Demonstrates Real-Time Battle Management System

Kevin Moloney

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings on Tuesday, Jul. 19, before market open.

Consensus EPS estimate is $4.67 and consensus revenue estimate is $16.02B (-5.9% Y/Y).

Over the last 1 year, LMT has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 6 downward revisions while revenue estimates have seen 10 downward.

LMT fell after posting Q1 revenue miss, hurt by COVID-related supply chain snags, and reaffirming its FY22 outlook.

SA contributor Gen Alpha in a bullish analysis said LMT should benefit from global tensions and will likely return more capital to shareholders this year.

Recent news:

  • The U.S. Air Force successfully tested a hypersonic missile from LMT, Reuters reported. In a separate test, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency demonstrated its Operational Fires program.
  • LMT bought annuity contracts to transfer ~$4.3B of gross pension obligations to Athene (ATH), expected to result in a ~$1.5B non-cash settlement charge in Q2.
  • LMT CFO Jay Malave said the firm still needs to resolve some items with the Dept. of Defense to wrap up 3 years of talks on F-35 production lots, Bloomberg reported.
  • LMT seeks to nearly double its production of Javelin anti-tank missiles to 4K/year, CEO Jim Taiclet told CBS.
  • Countries buying LMT’s F-35 jets may face millions in added costs if issues arise during long-delayed combat simulation tests, Bloomberg reported.

Some recent orders:

  • Greece sent an official request to the U.S. to purchase 20 F-35 jets and is considering acquiring a second set.
  • LMT unit Sikorsky Aircraft was awarded a $429.17M contract related to Black Hawk choppers. It also bagged a ~$2.28B contract for procuring 120 Black Hawk helicopters for FY22-26.
  • LMT was awarded a $632.13M contract for engineering and support for F-35 Lightning II aircraft.

SA Quant rating on LMT is Hold as it scored poorly on factor grades valuation, growth, earnings estimate revisions.

But SA Authors on average rated LMT Buy, in-line with bullish sell-side ratings.

LMT stock, which gained ~11% YTD, outperformed the S&P 500 and S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense over the last 1 year.

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