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Photograph by Gerard Julien/AFP/Getty Images
It might be time for
Microsoft
to go shopping.
Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin asserts in a research note Thursday that 2020 could be a defining year for the software giant. He argues that Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) has “a unique opportunity to further elevate its cloud leadership position through share gains and needle-moving M&A.”
The company’s huge run to a $1 trillion-plus valuation has been driven by the remarkable growth in its Azure cloud business, which is smaller than
Amazon.com’s
(AMZN) Amazon Web Services but growing faster—and Bracelin thinks the company can press its advantage with a smart deals.
Bracelin today repeated his Buy rating on Microsoft shares, lifting his target price to $190 from $158.
The Piper analyst writes that with $67 billion in net cash and another $200 billion of projected future free cash flow over the next three years, “M&A could take center stage in 2020.” He notes that Microsoft has less than 5% market share in business application software, giving the company “many options” to boost its position in the enterprise beyond Azure, LinkedIn, Office 365, and GitHub.
Bracelin points out that Microsoft has grown 8.5% on average over the past decade, but contends that the company is poised to see growth accelerate to a 12% annual rate over the next three years, driven by its cloud business. He notes that the company’s commercial cloud business has grown to 35% of revenue from 14% years three years ago, and that the total should top 50% by fiscal 2023, as the company’s cloud revenues eclipse $100 billion.
He sees multiple drivers for potential upside performance by Microsoft this year, including cloud momentum, further expansion in the security software market, and the debut of the first new Xbox console in seven years. There are some offsets, though, he cautions—including the continuing shortage of
Intel
(INTC) microprocessors, which could affect Windows revenue, and the conclusion of the recent Windows upgrade cycle, with the termination of support for Windows 7.
So what might Microsoft buy? “After applying Microsoft’s acquisition philosophy and framework across the business application software universe, we have identified potential acquisition targets that we would deem to be needle-moving pursuits,” Bracelin writes.
With the caveat that there is zero evidence that any of these proposed deals are actually in the works—nor is anyone asserting they are—here’s his list of 10 potential targets:
- Autodesk (ADSK): Architecture, construction, and manufacturing design software. Current market cap: $43 billion
- Twilio (TWLO): Cloud communications as a service. Market cap: $16.4 billion
- Workday (WDAY): Cloud-based HR and ERP software company. Market cap: $41.8 billion
- Salesforce.com (CRM): Sheer size makes a deal unlikely, he concedes, but would boost competitive position versus
Oracle,
IBM,
SAP,
and even AWS. Market cap: $162.5 billion - UiPath: Private company with estimated valuation above $7 billion; a leader in robotic process automation
- RingCentral (RNG): Leader in unified communications as a service sector; recently signed distribution deals with
Avaya
and
AT&T.
Market cap: $17 billion - Zendesk (ZEN): Offers cloud-customer experience applications. Market cap: $9.5 billion
- Flexport: Privately held logistics and supply chain software company. Estimated private value: above $3 billion
- Unity: Venture-backed gaming developer platform. Private market value estimated at $6 billion-plus
- Coupa (COUP): Leader in business spend management software. Market cap: $11 billion
Microsoft stock is up 0.2%, at $166.01, in recent trading. The
S&P 500
is down 0.3%.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]
