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The 2022 Midterm Elections are a little over one month away and
the races are tightening up. Democrats have seen their fortunes
improve with a string of legislative victories and improving poll
numbers for President Joe Biden. Republicans have continued to
message on economic concerns and see a favorable electoral map as
their key to victory. As the final sprint begins, we’ve
provided an overview of the most competitive House, Senate, and
Gubernatorial races this election cycle. We have also provided an
update on government funding, energy permitting, and FDA User Fee
reauthorization.
See below for greater detail on key issues and more of
what’s to come in this month’s edition of What’s
Next in Washington? presented by the Foley & Lardner
Federal Public Affairs team.
House, Senate, and Gubernatorial race ratings come from FiveThirtyEight Election Forecasts and Cook
Political Report.
Previewing Competitive House Races
Democrats currently control the House of Representatives 221
– 212. After losing seats in the 2020 election, Democrats
held on to a slim majority in the House. Republicans need to net
five seats in the House to flip control. Listed in alphabetical
order below are the most competitive House races in the 2022 cycle.
Key events, including that of inflation and economic concerns, in
addition to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v.
Jackson Women’s Health Organization, have pushed many
races into the “Toss-up” category. Additionally, one of
the most the key states that will determine control of the House is
California. California has multiple toss-up and close races that
could result in seat pick-ups for each party. You can learn more
about the California House races here.
2022 Competitive House
|
|||
District
|
Incumbent
|
PVI
|
Expert
|
Alaska At-Large
|
Mary Pelota (D)
|
R, +8
|
Toss-up
|
Arizona’s 1st
|
David Schweikert (R)
|
R, +2
|
Toss-up
|
Arizona’s 2nd
|
Tom O’Halleran (D)
|
R, +6
|
Lean
|
Arizona’s 6th
|
Open Seat
|
R, +3
|
Lean
|
California’s 9th
|
Josh Harder (D)
|
D, +5
|
Lean
|
California’s 13th
|
Open Seat
|
D, +4
|
Toss-up
|
California’s 22nd
|
David Valadao (R)
|
D, +1
|
Toss-up
|
California’s 27th
|
Mike Garcia (R)
|
D, +4
|
Toss-up
|
California’s 41st
|
Ken Calvert (R)
|
R, +3
|
Lean
|
California’s 45th
|
Michelle Steel (R)
|
D, +2
|
Lean
|
California’s 47th
|
Katie Porter (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
California’s 49th
|
Mike Levin (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
Colorado’s 8th
|
New Seat
|
Even
|
Toss-up
|
Connecticut’s 5th
|
Jahana Hayes (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
Illinois’ 6th
|
Sean Casten (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
Illinois’ 13th
|
Open Seat
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
Illinois’ 17th
|
Open Seat
|
D, +2
|
Toss-up
|
Indiana’s 1st
|
Frank Mrvan (D)
|
D, +3
|
Toss-up
|
Iowa’s 3rd
|
Cindy Axne (D)
|
R, +3
|
Lean
|
Kansas’ 3rd
|
Sharice Davids (D)
|
R, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Maine’s 2nd
|
Jared Golden (D)
|
R, +6
|
Toss-up
|
Michigan’s 3rd
|
Open Seat
|
D, +1
|
Lean
|
Michigan’s 7th
|
Elissa Slotkin (D)
|
R, +2
|
Toss-up
|
Michigan’s 8th
|
Dan Kildee (D)
|
R, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Minnesota’s 2nd
|
Angie Craig (D)
|
D, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Nebraska’s 2nd
|
Don Bacon (R)
|
Even
|
Toss-up
|
Nevada’s 1st
|
Dina Titus (D)
|
D, +3
|
Toss-up
|
Nevada’s 3rd
|
Susie Lee (D)
|
D, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Nevada’s 4th
|
Steven Horsford (D)
|
D, +3
|
Toss-up
|
New Hampshire’s 1st
|
Chris Pappas (D)
|
D, +5
|
Toss-up
|
New Hampshire’s 2nd
|
Ann Kuster (D)
|
D, +2
|
Lean
|
New Jersey’s 3rd
|
Tom Malinowski (D)
|
R, +1
|
Lean
|
New Mexico’s 2nd
|
Yvette Herrell (R)
|
D, +1
|
Toss-up
|
New York’s 1st
|
Open Seat
|
R, +3
|
Lean
|
New York’s 3rd
|
Open Seat
|
D, +2
|
Lean
|
New York’s 17th
|
Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
New York’s 18th
|
Pat Ryan (D)
|
D, +1
|
Lean
|
New York’s 19th
|
Open Seat
|
Even
|
Toss-up
|
New York’s 22nd
|
Open Seat
|
D, +1
|
Toss-up
|
North Carolina’s 1st
|
Open Seat
|
D, +2
|
Lean
|
North Carolina’s 13th
|
Open Seat
|
Even
|
Toss-up
|
Ohio’s 1st
|
Steve Chabot (R)
|
D, +2
|
Toss-up
|
Ohio’s 9th
|
Marcy Kaptur (D)
|
R, +3
|
Toss-up
|
Ohio’s 13th
|
Open Seat
|
R, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Oregon’s 4th
|
Open Seat
|
D, +4
|
Lean
|
Oregon’s 5th
|
Open Seat
|
D, +2
|
Toss-up
|
Oregon’s 6th
|
New Seat
|
D, +4
|
Lean
|
Pennsylvania’s 7th
|
Susan Wild (D)
|
R, +2
|
Lean
|
Pennsylvania’s 8th
|
Matt Cartwright (D)
|
R, +4
|
Toss-up
|
Pennsylvania’s 17th
|
Open Seat
|
Even
|
Toss-up
|
Rhode Island’s 2nd
|
Open Seat
|
D, +4
|
Toss-up
|
Texas’ 15th
|
Open Seat
|
R, +1
|
Lean
|
Texas’ 28th
|
Henry Cuellar (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
Texas’ 34th
|
Merged Seat
|
D, +9
|
Lean
|
Virginia’s 2nd
|
Elaine Luria (D)
|
R, +2
|
Toss-up
|
Virginia’s 7th
|
Abigail Spanberger (D)
|
D, +1
|
Lean
|
Washington’s 3rd
|
Open Seat
|
R, +5
|
Lean
|
Washington’s 8th
|
Kim Schrier (D)
|
D, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Wisconsin’s 3rd
|
Open Seat
|
R, +4
|
Lean
|
Previewing Competitive Senate Races
The Senate is currently held by the Democrats in a 50-50 split,
with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie breaking vote. Below
are the 10 most competitive races this cycle listed in alphabetic
order. Key 2020 election swing states, including Arizona, Georgia,
Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all have a seat up for
election. Republicans need to net only one seat to flip the Senate
in their control. While Democrats see retiring Republican
incumbents in Biden-won states as their keys to retaining the upper
chamber.
2022 Competitive Senate
|
|||
State
|
Incumbent/Leading
|
PVI
|
Expert
|
Arizona
|
Mark Kelly (D)
|
D, +5
|
Toss-up
|
Colorado
|
Michael Bennet (D)
|
D, +10
|
Lean
|
Florida
|
Marco Rubio (R)
|
R, +7
|
Lean
|
Georgia
|
Raphael Warnock (D)
|
Even
|
Toss-up
|
New Hampshire
|
Maggie Hassan (D)
|
D, +8
|
Lean
|
Nevada
|
Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
|
D, +2
|
Toss-up
|
North Carolina
|
Open Seat; Rep. Ted Budd (R), Cheri Beasley (D)
|
R, +3
|
Lean
|
Ohio
|
Open Seat; J.D. Vance (R), Rep. Tim Ryan (D)
|
R, +4
|
Lean
|
Pennsylvania
|
Open Seat; Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), Mehmet Oz
|
D, +6
|
Lean
|
Wisconsin
|
Ron Johnson (R)
|
R, +1
|
Toss-up
|
Gubernatorial Race
Listed in order of most
competitive, 12 Governor races are highlighted below. A total of 36
governorships are up for election in 2022. Democrats are
anticipated to pick up two governorships in solid-Democrat states,
Gov. Charlie Baker (R) of Massachusetts is retiring and Gov. Larry
Hogan (R) of Maryland is term limited.
2022 Competitive
|
|||
State
|
Incumbent/Leading
|
PVI
|
Expert
|
Arizona
|
Open Seat; Katie Hobbs
|
D,
|
Toss-up
|
Kansas
|
Laura Kelly (D)
|
D,
|
Lean
|
Wisconsin
|
Tony Evers (D)
|
D, +3
|
Lean
|
Oregon
|
Open Seat; Tina Kotek
|
D, +3
|
Lean Democrat
|
Nevada
|
Steve Sisolak (D)
|
D,
|
Lean
|
Georgia
|
Brian Kemp (R)
|
R, +7.4
|
Lean Republican
|
New Mexico
|
Michelle Lujan Grisham
|
D, +3
|
Likely Democrat
|
Pennsylvania
|
Open Seat; Josh Shapiro (D), Doug Mastriano (R)
|
D,
|
Likely
|
Maine
|
Janet Mills (D)
|
D,
|
Likely Democrat
|
Florida
|
Ron DeSantis (R)
|
R,
|
Likely Republican
|
Michigan
|
Gretchen Whitmer (D)
|
D,
|
Likely
|
Texas
|
Greg Abbot (R)
|
R,
|
Likely
|
Congress Passes Short-Term Funding Bill
With hours to spare, Congress passed a continuing resolution
(CR) to fund the government through December 16th, 2022.
This bill temporarily extends FY-2022 funding levels for anything
funded through the appropriations process. In addition, and among
other provisions, this bill:
- Provides $12 billion in emergency assistance for Ukraine.
- Injects $18 billion into FEMA’s disaster relief fund for
various states recovering from natural disasters across the country
(Florida, Alaska, and Puerto Rico). - Includes $2 billion in Community Development Block Grants to
help communities recovering from major disasters. - Extends several HHS and Veterans Affairs programs.
- Reauthorizes the FDA’s user fees relating to drugs,
devices, generic drugs, biosimilar biological products, and various
other programs and grants.
It is also important to note what is absent from this CR.
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) withdrew his energy permitting overhaul
proposal, the Energy Independence and Security Act of
2022, because it was an issue of contention for members in both
parties. Majority Leader Schumer had previously agreed to allow
this to be included in the CR in order to gain Manchin’s vote
for the Inflation Reduction Act. This may again get put on the
table for discussion during the lame duck session. You can read
more about Manchin’s proposal here.
The short-term funding bill reauthorizes user fee programs, but
unlike previous user fee packages, it does not include any of the
policy riders that were included in the House’s Food and Drug Amendments of 2022 or the
Senate’s FDA Safety and Landmark Advancements Act of
2022. It is yet to be determined which of the stripped policy
riders will be included in an omnibus package at the end of the
year. You can read more about reauthorization here.
After passing the CR, Leader Schumer announced that the Senate
would not reconvene until the second week of November, thus
canceling two weeks of October session. The House is not scheduled
to return until the third week of November.
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