While recent polls suggest that Democrats have been closing the
electoral gap in terms of House races, historical trends, favorable
maps, and polling data show that Republicans are still poised to
win enough seats in the November mid-term election to become the
majority party in the House next year. However, the Senate remains
a toss-up, with political experts seeing Democrats are slightly
favored to keep the majority (at a minimum factoring-in Vice
President Harris as the tie-breaker) in the “upper
chamber.”
If Republicans do take the House, the odds-on favorite to lead
as Speaker is current House Republican Leader, Rep. Kevin McCarthy
(R-CA), with current House Republican Whip, Rep. Steve Scalise
(R-LA), as Majority Leader. The Whip position will be open, with
the possibility of Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA) or Rep. Tom Emmer
(R-MN) stepping in, who currently are Deputy Whip and NRCC
Chairman, respectively. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) has already
released a statement expressing her willingness to remain
Conference Chair, but freshman Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) has also
expressed interest in running for the position.
Leader McCarthy is aligning the political pieces for a potential
Republican majority while working to maintain a cohesive economic
message through the midterms. In creating Republican “task
forces” to work in tandem with House committees, Leader
McCarthy has been able to broaden the scope of House Republican
Conference members invited to his leadership table. These task
forces have’ compiled key policy agenda items and circulated
them to Republican Conference members, who tested the message with
constituents throughout August to lay the groundwork for what
Leader McCarthy is calling the “Commitment to
America.”
Like the “Contract for America” and “A Better
Way,” instituted by previous Republican Speakers, Leader
McCarthy’s agenda attempts to enhance transparency in the House
and advance conservative policies that Republicans believe directly
impact the day-to-day lives of middle-class voters. We expect
“Commitment to America” to be rolled out on
September 23. Below is a preview of the
messaging associated with the initiative:
In advance of the November election, we expect Leader McCarthy
to preview what a Republican majority will seek to do legislatively
next year if it wins the majority by designating the top ten bills
(i.e., H.R. 1-10) bills that he would seek to move in the first 100
days of the new congress. Many of the expected legislative items
have already been written and highlighted by the Republican task
forces, but certain changes and amendments likely will need to be
made before any floor consideration. Below is the most up-to date
messaging from the House Republican task forces, which include
specific bills to be considered in 2023.
Healthy Future Task Force
Jobs & The Economy Task Force
Energy, Climate, and Conservation Task Force
American Security Task Force
Big Tech, Censorship, & Data Task Force
If Republicans win enough seats in November take the House in
2023, the 2022 lame-duck (post-election) session likely will be
driven by the Senate and House Democrats. We should expect them to
try and clear the deck before the end of the year, not only funding
the government, but also extending specific expiring healthcare and
tax provisions for a set period. Given the fact that many House
Republicans likely will not vote to fund the Biden
administration’s policy agenda, an incoming Republican majority
in 2023 would likely require Democratic votes to fund the
government.
It should be noted that given the polarized nature of Congress,
there is a high likelihood that, especially if the House
Republicans are in the majority, there could be a temporary
government shutdown. If the House Republican are in the majority,
Republicans House Freedom Caucus members could force the hand of
the incoming Speaker, mirroring the shutdown that occurred in 2013
under then-Speaker Boehner (R-OH). Funding associated with the
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the Bipartisan
Infrastructure bill, to an extent, will continue to face
strong opposition from House Republicans. Another point of
contention that could lead to a legislative stalemate if the
Republicans take the House majority is funding for new climate
change initiatives passed in the IRA. Increased domestic energy
production from fossil fuels is a critical component of the House
Republican platform, and House Republicans very well could attempt
to force the hand of the Biden administration to make concessions
in order to avoid a shutdown.
Under Republican leadership, we would expect to see a more
aggressive congressional calendar in 2023. Leader McCarthy has
consistently criticized the number of days the House is out of
session and likely will keep members in DC for additional weeks if
he becomes Speaker. As in previous Republican majorities, we should
expect “theme weeks” in the House. This is critical for
House leadership to keep a broad coalition of members across the
Republican spectrum messaging around a specific topic. Expect weeks
designated to focus on domestic energy production, China
accountability, parental rights, big tech censorship, border
security, law enforcement and crime reduction, health care
affordability, and inflation reduction.
On policy issues, if Republican win the majority, we could see
Leader McCarthy enter policy debates ignored by other Republican
leaders. For example, he may take on issues such as climate change
by taking shots at a perceived “radical environmental”
Biden administration, while supporting new carbon reduction
technologies like carbon capture. Certain social issues such as
abortion may remain politically fraught for Republican leaders, so
we would expect Leader McCarthy to try and divert energy away from
those issues and keep the focus on the economy and any perceived
shortcomings of the current administration. Moreover, in a
significant change from past GOP House majorities, we could see
House Republican leaders taking oversight aim at businesses that,
in their opinion, have placed too much value on environmental,
social and governance issues that run counter to conservative
principles.
While critical policy pieces are still being crafted, here is
some of the legislative issues that House Republicans could look to
move in 2023 if they are in the majority:
H.R. 19 – The Lower Costs, More Cures
Act. While the prescription drug provisions in the
Inflation Reduction Act will alter the specifics of this bill to an
extent, the message surrounding H.R. 19 will be to enhance
transparency in drug pricing, holding manufacturers accountable to
patients, and protecting American innovation. Republicans will
continue to focus on policy that encourages innovation of
groundbreaking new cures, promotes more low-cost options for
patients, and curbs perceived questionable business practices by
certain actors.
Domestic Energy Production. This is the number
one issue for many Republican members, including Rep. Scalise. Many
House Republicans in energy producing states like Louisiana,
Wyoming, and Texas view the environmental policies of the current
administration as a direct assault on the livelihood of their
constituencies. House Republican may challenge funding for the
administration’s clean energy initiatives, with Republicans
believing the price of gas gives them public support to
aggressively push a deregulatory policy agenda. Expect legislation
that addresses drilling on federal lands, expediting any
applications for permit to drill (APDs), streamlining the National
Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), securing domestic exploration of
critical minerals, and expanding the use of hydropower.
Parents Bill of Rights. Introduced in the
current Congress, this bill contains numerous transparency and
accountability provisions designed to increase parental involvement
in schools. It’s built on five core principles that would apply
to all schools nationwide that receive federal funding.
- Parents have the right to review their school’s curriculum,
reading materials, and state academic standards. - Parents have the right to lawfully engage with their local
school board and educators. - Parents have the right to see a school’s budget and
spending, including detailed information about revenues and
expenditures. - Parents have the right to protect their child’s
privacy. - Parents have the right to keep their child safe and to be
updated on any violent activity at school.
Extending the Trump Tax Cuts. House Republicans
will move to extend or make permanent certain tax credits included
in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Expect this to
bolster the message that Republicans will reduce the economic
burden on working families. It is important to note that many of
the individual tax cuts will expire in 2025, giving Republicans an
opportunity to stress the urgency in making these changes permanent
to ease the burden on families.
This measure will not take away from a tax extender package at
the end of the year, and with the R&D credit expiring for
corporations, we should expect that piece to be extended before
2023.
Border Security. Given the continued influx of
migrants at the border, expect Republicans to draft legislation
that forces the hand of the administration to gain operational
control of the border. Policies pertaining to the border will be
focused on utilizing all available border security technology
including finishing the wall, reinstituting the “Remain in
Mexico” policy, and empowering law enforcement personnel.
Social Media Censorship. Conservative House
Republicans will be on a mission to stop the perceived “big
tech” censorship of conservative beliefs. We would expect the
House Judiciary Committee to hold hearings on this subject and
possibly move legislation through the committee on the matter. The
Protect Speech Act, the only bill introduced by Rep. Jim Jordan
(R-OH) this congress, modifies the immunity from liability of a
provider or user of an interactive computer service (e.g., a social
media company) for screening and blocking offensive content on its
platform.
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