The Philadelphia Phillies spent nearly $200 million improving their offense last offseason. With all eyes laser-focused on what was slated to be the Phillies best-hitting core in years, the exploits of their starting rotation have gone largely unnoticed.
The uninjured members of Phillies lineup currently consist of only two regulars with an OPS+ over 100. The starting rotation has had to pick up slack left by the injuries to Jean Segura and Bryce Harper.
Ranking first in the National League in fWAR, second in FIP and innings pitched, Philadelphia’s rotation has had all the consistency the offense has lacked.
But as July begins, much of that seems ready to unravel. While staff aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will likely cruise to All-Star nominations, back-end starters Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin and Ranger Suárez have all faced turbulence of some kind.
For Gibson, the issue has been pitching with runners on-base. He’s allowed a slashline of .301/.386/.425 with runners on, whereas his slash with unclogged bases is .241/.288/.429.
Kyle Gibson exits after 6.1 innings pitched against the Texas Rangers in Arlington.
© Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
Suárez, meanwhile, has struggled with general inconsistency. He’s had five starts out of 15 in which he’s allowed three runs or fewer, but pitched six innings or more. On other nights, the lefty seems better suited to his former role in the bullpen. Suárez has also had six starts lasting fewer than five innings.
Eflin has been slightly more consistent than either of his two back-end counterparts, but yet another knee injury may send him on a lengthy trip to the injured list. This isn’t the first time Eflin has faced mid-season knee troubles, it’s not his second time either.
For his career, Eflin has thrown 421 innings pre-All-Star break for a 4.08 ERA. Post-All-Star break, Eflin has only pitched 171.2 innings for an ERA of 5.82. If that’s not indicative of the fact Eflin can’t be trusted to pitch consistently, or even at all, in August and September, then nothing is.
The Phillies need another starter to shore up the back-end of their rotation, either to replace Bailey Falter, who’s filling in for Eflin, or force Suárez back to his former role in the bullpen.
Unfortunately, there are few consistent pitchers on non-contending team on expiring contracts. Oakland Athletics ace Frankie Montas is the jewel of his deadline class, but his price tag is almost certainly more than the Phillies are willing to offer. A third ace is not high on the Phillies’ list of priorities.
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The Colorado Rockies, however, have two starters that could fit the Phillies’ needs.
Germán Márquez is a name that has popped up in trade discussions for several years, but with just one guaranteed year remaining on his contract, the Rockies almost certainly must lower his price tag.
Germán Márquez has been on a run of poor form in 2022.
© Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Alongside his diminished contract are is his diminished pitching skills in 2022. Prior to this season, Márquez’s career ERA+ was 115, his ERA 4.28. Unfortunately, his ERA has ballooned to a catastrophic 5.89 this season.
Yet his xERA is a far more respectable 4.91. Márquez has not been good this year, but advanced stats indicate that he still has a level of competence, one that would be elevated outside of Coors Field.
Since June 7 Márquez seems to have turned a corner. He’s averaged nearly six innings exactly in his last five starts for a 4.34 ERA.
Márquez would solve another of the Phillies mounting issues. Both Eflin and Gibson are slated to become free agents at season’s end. With Marquez under contract for the 2023 season, the club would no longer have to acquire multiple starters in the off-season, and by trading for Márquez’s rather large salary, the Phillies could perhaps steal a reliever too.
However, the Rockies best starter this year has been Chad Kuhl. He is a six-year MLB veteran whom the Colorado signed to a one-year, $3 million flyer in free agency. On such a cheap contract, Colorado could not have asked for better production.
Kuhl has pitched to a 3.49 ERA and and 3.95 FIP in 77.1 IP in 2022. He would slot easily into the Phillies’ third-spot in the rotation for the last two months of the season, providing more value than just a simple “innings eater” like Jason Vargas or Drew Smyly in years past.
The Phillies will need to make a splash at this year’s trade deadline if they want to be competitors down the stretch. Unlike 2018-21, it seems evident that the club has the talent to make a postseason push, all that remains to be seen is if Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies’ brass have the guile to make a move.
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