In Argentina, the dollar operates around maximums in all bands of the market. (.)
After then reaching the agreement with the main creditors to restructure sovereign debt with foreign law for about USD 65,000 million, the Government formally extended its offer until August 28. The degree of acceptance and activation of the Collective Action Clauses they are now the central data of the financial market, with influence on the free prices of the dollar.
The salient number of the wheel was the recoil of three pesos or 2.4% in the stock exchange parities of counted with settlement and MEP dollar, at 131.45 and 127.74 pesos, respectively.
Analysts Research for Traders they anticipated disparate prices for the dollars obtained in the Stock Market “waiting for this week to have a atypical pace of operations and even quotes, given that those who seek to dollarize will have fewer instruments ”.
This assumption is based on the fact that the titles Bonar 2020 (AO20) and Bonar 2024 (AY24), of the most used in cash transactions with settlement and MEP, make up the menu of debt swap under foreign law.
The exchange gap between cash with liquid and the wholesaler remains at 78%
« The Anses intervenes in the MEP, not so in cash with settlement. When the body sells the parity falls and when it retires it goes back up In cash with liqui, the public platforms calculate it with bonds and today the deadline to deliver the bonds with foreign legislation in Caja de Valores, with which there is sudden and disruptive movements that skew the statistics, « he commented Leandro Ziccarelli, Head of Research at ICB Argentina.
“It gives the feeling that Anses is going to continue getting into the MEP, although under normal conditions the MEP and the liquid would have to move similarly, with a certain gap. The effect of Distortion will last until the new bonds appear and then with the exchange of the bonds with local legislation, for which there is still a term. I would not take the movements as a reference of greater or lesser demand, but rather part of the exchange process, ”added Ziccarelli.
A financial consultant observed “a less liquidity of the bonds entering the exchange ”as a basis for volatility. “In this context, without the flagship bonds of the MEP and the cash with liquid, the price compass is lost. Perhaps the ideal would be to monitor the implicit values in shares ”, he pointed out.
He dollar blue was stable this Tuesday, at $ 137 for sale. The marginal dollar approached its maximum on July 24 last Friday, when it touched $ 140 and closed at 139 pesos.
In the formal market, the dollar wholesaler rose eight cents (+ 0.2%) on the day, to 73.81 pesos. So far in 2020 the official exchange rate rises 23.2 percent. The amount traded in the spot segment amounted to some 207.5 million of dollars.
Gustavo Quintana, from PR Corredores de Cambio, affirmed that the “insufficiency of the private supply forcedCentral income to supply demand for foreign exchange ”. And he added that “private market sources estimate that the BCRA had to dispose of USD 60 million approximately to attend authorized purchase orders ”.
« If expectations improve with the exchange, we would find no reason to establish greater restrictions » (Miguel Pesce)
The president of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), Michelangelo Pesce, stated this Tuesday that expects a change in market expectations after restructuring sovereign debt, which will make it possible not to apply greater restrictions to the exchange market.
In a videoconference with the Argentine Institute of Finance Executives (IAEF), Pesce was confident that once the debt restructuring process is completed, market expectations will improve and the gap between different dollar values is reduced in the atomized local plaza.
“What we are waiting for is an improvement in expectations. If this improvement in expectations occurs, we would find no reason to have to establish greater restrictions in the exchange market ”, he explained.
Looks are focused on booking stress. The BCRA accumulated in August a negative net balance of USD 800 million for its cash sales. Net reserves fell below the USD 10 billion threshold, according to the latest consolidated balance sheet of the entity, while the liquid reserves with which it can intervene, excluding gold holdings, were reduced to 6,134 million dollars.
The Bookings International increased by one million dollars this Monday, to end in the 43,049 million dollars.
I kept reading:
The Central Bank went out to withdraw pesos to prevent greater pressure on the dollar
Miguel Pesce, on the dollar: « The closing of the exchange will give a positive signal to the market and the gap should be reduced »
Crash in bond prices does not bode well for debt swap
