Almost four weeks ago, Russian tanks rolled across the border into Ukraine. The Russian army had been massing close to 200,000 troops along the Ukraine border, which the Kremlin claimed were simply conducting military “exercises.”
For observers who saw what Russia previously did in Syria in 2015, in Donetsk/Luhansk and Crimea in 2014, and in the Republic of Georgia in 2008, the invasion that began Feb. 24 of this year was a shock, but no surprise. So began the worst humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Bosnian war in 1995.
As people, we are horrified to see the fighting and the displacement of over two million civilian refugees who fled Ukraine into western Europe. We shed tears over the bombings of hospitals, schools, and residential areas. We grieve for the dead.
As Americans, it is particularly painful for us to see a devastating war started for such naked political ambitions. At the outset, Russian President Vladimir Putin absurdly announced he wanted to “de-nazify” Ukraine for the protection of the Ukrainian people. He might have been more persuasive — and perhaps also more credible — had he claimed there was a secret Ukrainian plot to undermine his country, staged a false flag attack on Russia, or perhaps claimed Ukraine was preparing to use weapons of mass destruction.
There was no need for such subterfuge. Putin’s Casus Belli was the very existence of a democratically elected, western-leaning government. And, apparently, there is no limit to the punishment he is willing to inflict upon the Ukrainian people for continuing to have one.
Perhaps the hardest part for me as an American is to see the suffering of the Ukrainian people when I know we would never tolerate such an assault on our own civil rights. For example, an equivalent intrusion by Mexico to “liberate” portions of the southwestern United States would rally the entire country to arms. Treaties and political balances be damned, we would respond with full force, if necessary.
And yet as Americans we sit almost helplessly and watch as the Ukraine situation unfolds. While our politicians talk about not giving Russia an excuse to vilify NATO, while a stream of US-made javelin and stinger missiles stream across the Ukrainian border.
I struggle with this daily. I feel we should take almost any measure to protect lives and livelihoods of other people, no matter in what polity they happen to live. I feel borderline disgust for my own comfort and security at a time when I know millions in Ukraine have none.
At the same time, I was strongly influenced by an opinion piece by Mark Hannah published in the Wall Street journal on Feb. 28, 2022, titled, “The U.S. Shouldn’t Interfere While Putin Loses in Ukraine.” Mr. Hannah, the founder of the Eurasia Group Foundation, a political risk consultancy, argues Russia can only lose this conflict.
“He can’t stamp out Ukrainians’ persistent desire for independence or inspire allegiance to Moscow on the strength of his military might alone.” Hannah states in his piece. “The best he [Putin] can hope for is the installation of unpopular pro-Russian political leaders propped up by a costly occupation.”
Mr. Hannah predicts President Biden will face political pressure to “do more” to help Ukraine, but doing more wouldn’t necessarily be doing “better,” because in the long run, a stand off with the United States would bolster Putin’s popularity at home, while the human toll of a long and costly occupation of a country Putin claims to be “part of Russia” will weaken it.
Mr. Hannah is right. In the long run, Putin’s standing at home will diminish from a protracted and costly Ukraine conflict; one he can never truly win. Three generations of Ukrainians are being defined by this conflict; they will never give up.
Biden and his advisors are also right. It’s not worth the risk of nuclear escalation with Russia. And the international standing of NATO would be harmed if it were perceived as an aggressor attempting to “contain” Russia. This might be the best chance we have to get rid of Putin by letting him fail in Ukraine.
However, knowing that doesn’t take away the agony of watching millions suffer under conditions I myself would never accept and would die to overcome. The agony of a foreign policy my head knows is right, but my heart feels is wrong. We should all pray for the people of Ukraine.
Michael Mullins holds an MBA from the University of Chicago and an MS in Real Estate Development from MIT. His business, Cranesport LLC is based in Camden and he lives in Rockland.
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