- Trade growth continues to decrease from previous quarter due to
macro headwinds across the region - High Technology sector, and ocean exports of Basic Raw Materials
and Machinery Parts to grow moderately as multilateral ties with
ASEAN nations open new opportunities
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA
– Media OutReach
– 9 December 2019 –
South Korea’s trade is set to experience moderate growth in the
machinery and technology industries, offering some optimism amidst
a continuing trade for the three-month period ending in January
2020, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer
released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade
developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data,
revealed that South Korea’s trade outlook is set to decelerate
further to 43 points, below the threshold of 50 which indicates
growth[1]
. Despite a general slowdown in trade, South Korea’s outlook
remains relatively positive for certain key industries like High
Technology, air imports of Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods
and ocean exports of Basic Raw Materials, and Machinery Parts.[2]
“The results of this quarter’s index point towards a protracted
downturn in trade, driven mainly by contracting air trade. However,
the renewed resilience of trade in key sectors suggests that South
Korea’s economy may have reached an inflection point
. We expect the Index’s forecasts for Basic Raw Materials,
Machinery Parts and High Technology growth to be further enhanced
in coming quarters by the recent strengthening of the ASEAN-Republic of Korea Free Trade Area
, a move that will enhance air links, infrastructure investment and
smart cities development — all of which should provide positive
momentum for South Korea’s key electronics and manufacturing
industries.” said SP Song, Managing Director, DHL Global Forwarding
Korea.
Steady but mild decline negatively affects all countries, except
India
The Barometer’s results also suggest that world trade is expected
to continue at moderate pace but further contract for the next
three months, driven by minor decreases in both air and
containerized ocean trade. Against previous quarters this year, the
downward trend in trade growth remains mostly stable, neither
indicating an acceleration of the decline nor a bottoming out of
contractionary movement. All seven nations monitored by the
Barometer received indexes below 50 points except for India, where
the Barometer forecasts moderate growth of five points to 54 points
for India. While Japan and the UK had been the only countries with
positive trade outlooks in the previous update in September, the
two countries record the highest losses in this period.
“According to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably
end with moderate world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where
we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergone in recent
years was like climbing the Mount Everest. Now, we are on the
descent, but we are still breathing altitude air,” Tim Scharwath,
CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says. “A countless number of
stable trade relations continues to flourish worldwide, despite
smouldering trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties.”
About the Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an
innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of
logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial
intelligence. The indicator is published four times a year and the
next release date is scheduled for end of March 2020.
For more information on the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please
visit: logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb
. The index is now also available for subscribers of the Bloomberg
terminal by using the code “DHLG <GO>”.
Note to editors:
The proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
will boost market access to products and capital, and create the
world’s largest regional trading bloc that will account for more
than 29.1 percent of global trade.
Read more
about Asia’s next trade pact and its impact on global trade.
[1]
In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50
indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate
contraction.
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is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL
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express, road, air and ocean transport to industrial supply chain
management. With about 380,000 employees in more than 220 countries
and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses
securely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With
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technology, life sciences and healthcare, energy, automotive and
retail, a proven commitment to corporate responsibility and an
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