Among the most pressing vulnerabilities is an overreliance in Europe on natural gas and crude oil from Russia, as well as dependence on both Russia and Ukraine for key agricultural commodities. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine account for more than 25% of the world’s trade in wheat and for more than 60% of global sunflower oil and 30% of global barley exports. Russia is also a major global exporter of fertilizers, which means any supply shortages, or restricted access, could impact crop yields globally.
It’s not just oil and agricultural commodities that are under stress. As Deloitte noted in a recent report, “The principal reason that Russia plays above its weight is that it is a major exporter of some of the world’s most important commodities.”1 Russia is a significant source of many of the 35 critical minerals that the US Department of the Interior (DOI) deems vital to the nation’s economic and national security interests, including 30% of the globe’s supply of platinum-group elements (including palladium), 13% of titanium, and 11% of nickel. Russia is also a major source of neon, used for etching circuits on silicon wafers. Palladium, a critical component of catalytic converters for cars, has climbed as much as 80% in price since the conflict started. Moreover, as a result of the Ukraine conflict, LMC Automotive has cut its forecast of light vehicle sales in Europe by 2 million units a year over the next two years.2
