reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRIP%3DECI poll
ISTANBUL, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Turkey’s industrial production is seen expanding 2.70% annually in August, extending a strong two-year run despite rampant inflation and an ailing currency, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Output made a strong recovery after the initial coronavirus wave in April 2020 and has been expanding since then. But the pace of growth has slowed in recent months, with industrial activity declining due to the wider global slowdown.
The median estimate in the Reuters poll of six institutions showed year-on-year growth of 2.70% in the calendar-adjusted industrial production index TRIP=ECI in August.
Forecasts for the index, seen as a preliminary indicator of economic growth, ranged between 1.70% and 6.00%.
President Tayyip Erdogan’s economic programme prioritises growth, exports, investments and employment while cutting interest rates.
The central bank has cut its policy rate by 200 basis points in the last two months, citing indications of an economic slowdown. Erdogan, a self-described “enemy” of interest rates, has called on the bank to lower rates to single digits by the end of the year.
The index expanded 2.40% in July, far below forecast, indicating the impact of declining demand due to the global economic slowdown.
Turkey’s economy grew 11% last year, up sharply from a year earlier. But a sharp selloff in the lira in December upended company and household budgets, and sent inflation soaring via import prices.
The currency crisis and resulting jump to 83% inflation, as well as fallout from war, are expected to hamper growth in 2022.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce August industrial production figures at 0700 GMT on Oct. 12.
(Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Reuters Messaging: Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))
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