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reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRIP%3DECI poll data
ISTANBUL, March 8 (Reuters) – Turkey’s industrial production is expected to have expanded 9.7% annually in January, rising for a 19th consecutive month, though activity should cool from the previous month due to disruptions to some utilities, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
Month on month, factory production is expected to have slightly contracted due to electricity and natural gas cuts at industrial facilities stemming from a technical failure in Iran.
Year-on-year growth, however, has remained positive since coronavirus measures were eased in 2020. The median estimate in the Reuters poll of seven institutions showed growth of 9.7% in the calendar-adjusted industrial production index in January.
Forecasts ranged between 7.0% and 12.1%.
Enver Erkan, chief economist at Tera Yatirim, said the natural gas and power cuts at the end of January may have led to a contraction or slowdown in industrial production.
He added that a potential input supply issue due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising production costs, could slow things more.
“If there is a reduction in external demand, this could impact production through exports. If there is a supply chain disruption due to war after February, this could impact industrial production with both price increases and a lack of goods in the market,” he said.
Erkan added that he expects the pace of growth in the index to slow down to single digits as of March and approach neutral towards summer.
In April of 2020, output plummeted more than 31% in the face of the initial coronavirus wave. It has since made a strong recovery because subsequent measures largely skirted the manufacturing sector, and most remaining restrictions were lifted in July of last year.
Turkey’s economy grew 11% last year, up sharply from a year earlier but a volatile selloff in the lira in December upended company and household budgets, and sent inflation soaring via import prices.
The late-2021 currency crisis and resulting jump to 54% inflation, as well as fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are expected to hamper growth in 2022.
The Turkish Statistical Institute will announce January industrial production figures at 0700 GMT on March 11.
(Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)
(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Reuters Messaging: Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))
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