Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org
Supply Chain Risk

Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data

  • Pictet, J. S. & Siordet, F. Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition of the Wounded and Sick in Armed Forces in the Field. International Committee of the Red Cross (1952).

  • Kress, M. Modeling armed conflicts. Science 336, 865–869 (2012).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Croicu, M. & Ralph, S. UCDP GED codebook version 17.1. Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, 1–38 (2017).

  • Sundberg, R. & Melander, E. Introducing the UCDP georeferenced event dataset. J. Peace Res. 50, 523–532 (2013).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Raleigh, C. & Dowd, C. Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) Codebook 2017 (ACLED, 2017).

  • Watts, S. et al. Understanding Conflict Trends. (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, 2017).

  • Watts, S. et al. A More Peaceful World? (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, 2017).

  • Cederman, L. E. & Weidmann, N. Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations? Science 355, 474–476 (2017).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Mach, K. J. et al. Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 571, 193–197 (2019).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Uexkull, V. N. & Buhaug, H. Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress. J. Peace Res. 58, 3–17 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Buhaug, H. et al. One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict. Clim. Change 127, 391–397 (2014).

    ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Wischnath, G. & Buhaug, H. On climate variability and civil war in Asia. Clim. Change 122, 709–721 (2014).

    ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Salehyan, I. Climate change and conflict: Making sense of disparate findings. Polit. Geogr. 43, 1–5 (2014).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ide, T., Brzoska, M., Donges, J. & Schleussner, C. F. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk. Glob. Environ. Change 62, 1–8 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Assembly, N. P. Resolution 427 on climate change and international security. Retrieved March 5, 2016 (2015).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Obama, B. H. Acceptance Speech for the Nobel Peace Prize. (Oslo, 2013).

  • Cisneros, B. J. et al. Climate Change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2014).

  • Kuper, R. & Kröpelin, S. Climate-controlled Holocene occupation in the Sahara: motor of Africa’s evolution. Science 313, 803–807 (2006).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M. & Miguel, E. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science 341, 1235367 (2013).

    PubMed 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • O’Loughlin, J. et al. Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 109, 18344–18349 (2012).

    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Schleussner, C. F., Donges, J. F., Donner, R. V. & Schellnhuber, H. J. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 113, 9216–9221 (2016).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bretthauer, J. Conditions for peace and conflict: applying a Fuzzy-Set qualitative comparative analysis to cases of resource scarcity. J. Confl. Resolut. 59, 593–616 (2014).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Uexkull, V. N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H. & Buhaug, H. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 113, 12391–12396 (2016).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Scheffran, J., Brzoska, M., Kominek, J., Link, P. & Schilling, J. Climate change and violent conflict. Science 336, 869–871 (2012).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Scheffran, J., Link, P. M. & Schilling, J. Theories and models of climate-security interaction: Framework and application to a climate hot spot in North Africa. In: Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace. (Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2012).

  • Hegre, H. et al. ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system. J. Peace Res. 56, 155–174 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Reichstein, M. et al. Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science. Nature 566, 195–204 (2019).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Yang, K. K., Wu, Z. & Arnold, F. H. Machine-learning-guided directed evolution for protein engineering. Nat. Methods 16, 687–694 (2019).

    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Jiang, Z. et al. Machine-learning-revealed statistics of the particle-carbon/binder detachment in lithium-ion battery cathodes. Nat. Commun. 11, 2310 (2020).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Pearson, D. & Detges, A. Big data applications for climate-conflict research. Polit. Geogr. 90, 102413 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • O’Loughlin, J., Linke, A. M. & Witmer, F. D. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2012. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 111, 16712–16717 (2014).

    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Haug, G. et al. Climate and the collapse of Maya Civilization. Science 299, 1731–1735 (2003).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kennett, D. et al. Development and disintegration of Maya Political Systems in response to climate change. Science 338, 788–791 (2012).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Okpara, U., Stringer, L., Dougill, A. & Bila, M. D. Conflicts about water in Lake Chad: are environmental, vulnerability and security issues linked? Prog. Dev. Stud. 15, 308–325 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Maertens, R. Adverse rainfall shocks and Civil War: myth or reality? J. Confl. Resolut. 65, 002200272096979 (2020).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Van, Weezel, S. Economic shocks & civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1981-2010. Def. Peace Econ. 26, 153–177 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Guedes, J. A. D., Crabtree, S. A., Bocinsky, R. K. & Kohler, T. A. Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: climate and society. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 113, 14483–14491 (2016).

    ADS 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Yin, Q., Wang, J., Ren, Z., Li, J. & Guo, Y. Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change. Nat. Commun. 10, 1–8 (2019).

    ADS 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Horowitz, D. L. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. (University of California Press, Berkeley, 1985).

  • Sambanis, N. & Shayo, M. Social identification and ethnic conflict. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 107, 294–325 (2013).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Denny, E. K. & Walter, B. F. Ethnicity and civil war. J. Peace Res. 51, 199–212 (2014).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zhukov, Y. M. Roads and the diffusion of insurgent violence: The logistics of conflict in Russia’s North Caucasus. Polit. Geogr. 31, 144–156 (2012).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Detges, A. Local conditions of drought-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of road and water infrastructures. J. Peace Res. 53, 696–710 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Buckley, B. M. et al. Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 107, 6748–6752 (2010).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Büntgen, U. et al. 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science 331, 578–582 (2011).

    ADS 
    PubMed 
    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R. & Kushnir, Y. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 112, 3241–3246 (2015).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Helman, D. & Zaitchik, B. Temperature anomalies affect violent conflicts in African and Middle Eastern warm regions. Glob. Environ. Change 63, 102118 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wall, N. & Widhalm, M. The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 485–488 (2011).

    ADS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Burke, M. B. et al. Warming increases the risk of Civil War in Africa. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106, 20670–20674 (2009).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fearon, J. & Laitin, D. Ethnicity, insurgency, and Civil War. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 97, 75–90 (2003).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Tzu, S. The art of war. (Shambhala Publications, Boston, 2005).

  • Olivier, J. The relationship between altitude and hail frequency in the Transvaal. S. Afr. J. Sci. 84, 587–588 (1988).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Datz, I. M. Military operations under special conditions of terrain and weather. (Lancer Publishers, Nagaland, 2008).

  • Vogt, M. et al. Integrating data on ethnicity, geography, and conflict: the ethnic power relations data set family. J. Confl. Resolut. 59, 1327–1342 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hirotsugu, U. & Nelson, A. Agglomeration index: towards a new measure of urban concentration. World Institute for Development Economics Research, United Nations University, Helsinki, (2010).

  • Zhang, Q. & Seto, K. C. Mapping urbanization dynamics at regional and global scales using multi-temporal DMSP/OLS nighttime light data. Remote Sens. Environ. 115, 2320–2329 (2011).

    ADS 
    CAS 
    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ide, T., Rodriguez, Lopez, M., Fröhlich, C. & Scheffran, J. Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region. J. Peace Res. 58, 568–582 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Related posts

    Ukraine war latest: Western officials warn that civilian deaths will rise

    scceu

    Loftware recognized as one of NH’s Top 100 private companies

    scceu

    Huawei conundrum: Global collaboration’ continues to elude Chinese giant; India testing waters

    scceu