Factory conditions in Minnesota and across the Midwest plummeted to record lows in March as many producers reported that the coronavirus crisis created major shipping problems, forced workers home and shoved confidence levels to new lows, according to a widely watched economic report released Wednesday by Creighton University.
The Mid-America Business Conditions Index for Minnesota and eight other central states fell to a worrisome 46.7 from February’s 52.8. Anything under 50 indicates a contraction.
Minnesota’s index plunged to 45.5 from 53.3 in February as new orders and sales, employment and inventory levels fell to levels not seen since the last recession.
Economists are paying attention, especially since the nine-state region had been recovering after a bumpy end to 2019.
The regional downturns mimic the national stage. The national Institute for Supply Management separately reported Wednesday that its producers index fell to 49.1 in March from 50.1 in February as new orders, production and employment fell across factories nationwide.
Between the second and third week of March, Minnesota’s first-time unemployment insurance claims expanded 29-fold.
Crieghton officials concede that middle America’s manufacturing sector was less impacted than other industries such as stores, restaurants and bars. However, the sector did not escape its own gut punch as the pandemic bore into large swaths of the economy and supply chain.
Factory life won’t get better soon.
Shipping delays caused by the virus prompted several producers to tear into existing inventories, even as they raced to switch from overseas or distant suppliers to companies much closer.
Last month, manufacturers such as boat and ATV maker Polaris and RV maker Winnebago temporarily shut plants and suspended production due to the COVID-19 outbreak that drove consumers indoors and forced millions of office workers to work from home.
Other manufacturers hurried to retool to meet health care worker demands by making face shields or masks.
“I expect negative impacts for manufacturers to worsen in the next month since almost two-thirds of supply managers reported that the coronavirus produced shipping problems to and from vendors,“ said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group.
Additionally, “eight of 10 supply managers reported that the coronavirus had caused the cancellation of business meetings, and 54.3% indicated that the virus had produced worker absences for the month.”
For the region — which also includes Iowa, North and South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Arkansas — employment levels fell to their lowest level in 10 years. The employment index slumped to 34.7 from February’s already weak 46.4.
One surveyed supply manager said: “Recently, I laid off 10% of workforce in anticipation of further downturns.”
Dee DePass • 612-673-7725
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