In a week what can result key code in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the foreign exchange market seems ready to abandon the calm of the first semester. Thus, the dollar blue and the “counted with liqui” went up this Monday and are located above $171, with which the gap with the wholesaler is located in 78,51%.
The Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, outline the final details of your travel to Italia. It will depart on Tuesday from Buenos Aires. Upon arrival will participate in the G20 meeting in the city of Venice. There he will have a meeting with the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva. Contacts with United States officials are also expected with the aim of advancing towards the new program with the agency.
Although they celebrated the “time bridge” obtained with the Paris Club, analysts and even a Wall Street giant estimated that the Government can maintain a certain exchange rate calm until the elections, they did not rule out a devaluation after that moment.
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Guzmán and other officials came out to reject any scenario of devaluation of the peso “neither now nor after the elections. However, the message did not calm the market, which began to pressure in the last days of June, when the parallel was positioned at the highest levels in eight months.
There the alarms were activated in the Casa Rosada, which sought a contingency plan to stop the parallels, with interventions by the Central Bank on the financiers (the Stock Market and the CCL). There were also meetings of the regulatory authorities with stock market operators in order to remove volatility from those segments.
Even in the market speaks from a “ceiling” of $ 170 to the parallel options to contain the pressure on the official price and avoid losing reserves in the attempt to stop the dollar.
Meeting in Venice
The summit of ministers of Finance and central bankers of the G-20 It will take place towards the weekend in the Italian city of Venice. Up there it will go Guzman and a small entourage to to debate changes in the overall financial structure that include a 15% minimum tax for large corporations, that for the Argentine minister it should be even greater.
Also present in the debate will be the order of the Government so that funds that the IMF is preparing to expand can be redirected to middle-income countries, such as Argentina.
The original extension of SDR, so the country will receive US $ 4.3 billion by the end of August, It has a final stage before it is distributed: the approval of the Board of Governors of the Fund that can occur in the middle of the month.
In parallel, Argentina and other countries insist that those SDRs not used by the more developed countries (USA, Germany or Japan for example) can be derivatives to other nations.
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The mechanisms of IMF aim to make this redistribution possible for poor countries, but not middle income as is the claim argentina and that it would allow to have greater reserves when negotiating how to pay the debt of US $ 45,000 million with the agency.
That negotiation, which Guzmán aims to close by December, when the second loan principal maturity also operates. Therefore, the conversations will have a central chapter in Venice, with the meeting between the minister and Georgieva, While it works for a meeting with the US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, key to unlock understanding extended facilities
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