Two and a half weeks ago, Sadyr Japarov was languishing in prison, serving an 11-year sentence for the kidnapping of a political opponent. Today he is both Kyrgyzstan’s prime minister and acting president, having assumed power after the latest popular revolt to upend the country’s chaotic system of government.
Public unrest erupted after the October 4 election amid accusations of vote buying, which led to protesters breaking into the country’s parliament, the office of former president Sooronbay Jeenbekov, and the jail cell holding Mr Japarov.
Kyrgyzstan’s colourful tapestry of political factions and tumultuous changes in leadership over the past two decades has seen it dubbed the only democracy among post-Soviet Central Asian republics that are dominated by dictators who rule for years.
But Mr Japarov’s rapid ascent from felon to head of state via popular protests and pressure on the judiciary is the third overthrow of an elected leader in 15 years, and suggests that turmoil is not a bug but a feature of the country’s political system.
“The system of political parties is collapsing. There are no real parties,” said Azamat Temirkoulov, a Kyrgyz political analyst and government adviser. “These are people who seek to protect their own interests . . . People got used to the use of mobilised, organised violence in achieving political goals.”
Mr Japarov, a Kyrgyz nationalist who has previously called for a massive Canadian gold mine in the country to be nationalised, has said he is keen to remove a clause in the country’s constitution that bans acting leaders from running in elections that they oversee, amid concerns that his rise to power was marked by violence and intimidation by his supporters.
His assumption of the reins of government appears to have been blessed by the tacit approval of Russia, Kyrgyzstan’s most important political, economic and defence partner. While Moscow has refrained from overt intervention in the three-week long political crisis, it has signalled its comfort with Mr Japarov’s regime.
Kyrgyzstan hosts a Russian military base and roughly a million Kyrgyz live and work in Russia, sending critical remittances home. Moscow is keen to keep the country within its orbit: Kyrgyzstan had a US military base from 2001 to 2014 and has growing economic ties with China.
Dmitry Kozak, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s deputy chief of staff, flew to Bishkek to meet Mr Japarov and Mr Jeenbekov last week. Mr Jeenbekov resigned a few days later.
“There have been no examples of the colour revolution lines being trotted out by Russia,” said Maximilian Hess, senior political risk analyst at AKE International, referring to the label Moscow has applied to pro-western uprisings in other countries where Russia has a political interest such as Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia.
“If Moscow thought the nationalism of the new government was going to be a threat to its influence or assets . . . then they would have used that language.”
Mr Japarov has already released a long-term policy programme and appointed his closest ally as head of the country’s state security apparatus.
His move from jail cell to presidential office came after thousands of his supporters took to the streets demanding his appointment as prime minister. When Mr Jeenbekov resigned citing his desire not to “spill blood”, Mr Japarov was made acting president under the country’s laws governing political succession.
“Japarov’s controversial ascent to power shows that Kyrgyzstan’s judicial system and law enforcement agencies are influenced by political force,” said Erica Marat, associate professor at the College of International Security Affairs, a US defence department-backed institution in Washington DC. “So, political competition is intense in Kyrgyzstan, but institutions are weak.”
The deposing of Mr Jeenbekov echoes similar uprisings in 2005 and 2010 that toppled the country’s elected head of state.
“It is clear that one of the obstacles towards democratic progress is the attempt by organised crime groups to exert influence over politics and elections,” the US embassy in Bishkek said. “Citizens and their leaders must continue to fight against the influence of organised crime and corruption in politics.”
Mr Japarov has made clear he will continue a policy of alignment with Russia, and confirmed no bilateral foreign policy arrangements would be altered.
“Moscow’s position is really looking unchallenged,” said Mr Hess. “It’s looking to jockey to see if it cannot only retain its position [in the country] but strengthen it.”
As acting president, Mr Japarov is charged with organising both a rerun of parliamentary polls — the results of which were annulled by the country’s electoral commission — and the election to find a permanent head of state. Analysts say those two ballots will probably decide whether the country retains its status as a democracy surrounded by dictatorships.
“If they are perceived as legitimate . . . Kyrgyzstan has an opportunity to solidify its image as a dynamic democratic country,” said Ms Marat. “There is, of course, still a chance that the elections will be derailed again with more reports of voter buying and use of administrative resources by pro-establishment parties.”
