“It’s amazing to see such radically opposed…

Thursday night in Nashville, the candidates engaged in a second long-awaited debate after the disaster of the first. Forced by the regulations, Donald Trump slipped into the role of outgoing president he had avoided until now. Joe Biden was able to present his vision of America this time, but without really detailing his program. The two men will only cross paths again if the second chases the first from the White House.

There are twelve days left for American voters to decide, until the poll. A very large number of them have already done so in advance, in proportions never seen before. The debate last night will undoubtedly not move the lines already known to both camps. More than the undecided, who are now only 3%, it is the mobilization of one side or the other which should arbitrate the final duel. But in this crazy campaign, many surprises could arise between now and November 3.

This debate was eagerly awaited, even dreaded: how did you find it?

Laurence Haïm: For me the debate was good, this is the first time in this campaign, which is not ordinary, that we have seen the candidates behave well, be structured, respect speaking times , do not cut each other off or shout at each other as in the first debate.

It was finally a debate of substance, in that it was really interesting. I found that Donald Trump had done a lot of work on his files, that he was much calmer. We expected what made his trademark, namely anger, irascibility, annoyance with journalists, and in the end we did not see that Trump.

But if he was calm and ultimately very political, Trump still spread a lot of untruths, a lot of lies, especially on the management of the pandemic. For his part, Joe Biden has chosen not to raise them systematically. His strategy was to let Trump say whatever he wanted, and come up with his own vision to “restore America’s image,” or deal with the pandemic.

Why this change of foot of Trump, compared to the first debate?

I am very surprised at the way he approached this debate, we had the impression to see a conventional politician, who had prepared himself, it was not the usual Donald Trump. In an hour and a half, no sparkle. He was very calm, very determined and very sure of his choices. He seemed convinced that everything he did was for the good of America, at least that’s what he was showing last night. In short, we saw a presidential Trump.

It is the first time that he has shown himself as outgoing president, that he does not play the outsider …

It is especially the first time that he does not play the provocateurs. He was a serious debater, that’s what struck me. Maybe if he had been like this for a few months, the polls would be better for him. It’s a good debate for Trump, a successful performance … if we put aside his untruths on important topics.

Can he gain anything from this good performance?

I believe that no one wins or loses. Trump’s America loves the way he’s behaved. Biden’s America is convinced that he was extremely good, precise, and noble in the way he defended his vision of America. There’s a poll that was done by CNN: 54% of viewers believe Biden has triumphed. Does this presage what will happen on November 3? We will see, in any case neither one nor the other made an error, failing to be exceptional. For me, it’s a draw, where the real winner is the good holding of a debate 15 days before this election.

But if the lines don’t move, is the winner going to be Biden?

It is true that the polls show that Biden is far ahead in many states, even if there is still a reconciliation of the scores in some key states: it remains uncertain in Pennsylvania or Florida.

For the moment, there is therefore a Biden advantage but there are 15 days left, and we have seen since the start of this crazy campaign that anything can happen. Remember that three weeks ago, Donald Trump was hospitalized and we were wondering on all the television sets how it was going to end …

We are always on the immediate, we lose sight of the fact that the remaining 12 days in this campaign could be very long. It is an America that is radicalized, that cannot take it any longer. It’s an America that wants to vote, it’s an America where 47 million inhabitants have already voted, that is to say already more than in the entire 2016 election. It has never been seen since decades.

Who will benefit from this strong mobilization?

We will only know by counting the votes, for whom it was made. Democrats are confident, so are the people at Trump: they tell themselves it’s like 2016, people don’t admit they are for Trump but will do so by voting. So in my opinion there is of course a Biden advantage, but in a campaign that remains unpredictable. We must remain vigilant, there is an absolutely terrible climate of pandemic with people who are suffering, we are living a strange moment and that is global.

Something struck me yesterday: Deep in a county in Georgia, there was a computer intrusion. A foreign power would have succeeded in hacking the system of a very small polling station, to seize the electoral lists and to blow up the telephone switchboard. Quite a few American journalists are working on this story. And at the same time the FBI has officially warned against foreign powers, namely Iran and Russia, which could modify data remotely and manipulate the results of the vote.

There is also the risk of a close election: if we have to recount, everything will rest on the attitude of Donald Trump. With Amy Coney Barrett, a large conservative majority should settle on the Supreme Court, will the Democrats fight back, what will they do? There may still be structural surprises in this election, whether it be the appointment of a Supreme Court justice, interference in the election, or the unpredictable. And once again, I say that anything can happen with two candidates who are over 70 years old.

Yes, there is the question of what will happen immediately after the vote …

Right now, it looks like it could be a big wave for Joe Biden, in what would actually be a referendum against Donald Trump. This is what the polls show. We’ll see if they got it wrong as in 2016, but for now they suggest a clear win for Biden.

On the other hand, if ever States “swing”, with a tight result, we will recount them. And then everything will depend on what Trump decides, in this very complex electoral system. He has considerable resources, and there is the danger of Trump’s America’s wrath to be reckoned with.

Is it paradoxical, such a quiet debate, with such distant points of view?

This is what was interesting in the debate yesterday. We have seen two visions of America clashing very calmly. Trump’s America, who for the first time expressed his vision through a fairly constructed speech. In particular on the pandemic, he explained why he was against containment, prioritizing the economy (and completely ignoring what affects millions of Americans).

On the other side we had Joe Biden who after 5 minutes of debate showed his little black mask, clenched in his fist. And that I found it to be interesting. We were faced with two Americas very different in their way of thinking, and on all subjects, economic, commercial, climatic, and which are really divided. And last night it was amazing to see such radically opposed visions expressing themselves so calmly.

Last night we also expected a lot of Donald Trump’s attacks on Hunter Biden, the son of the Democratic candidate?

Yes, it is also surprising. Yesterday afternoon Trump’s campaign team urgently organized what they call in their lingo a conference call. We all rushed to the phone. They had announced that it was to talk about the debate, but in fact it was to detail us in a precise way, with dates and e-mails, all the investigation they made on Hunter Biden, in Ukraine and in China, and its actions.

They banned us from any questions on other subjects, also announcing that the businessman who brought them all these elements would be in the audience of the debate, invited by the President of the United States. So we really expected Hunter Biden to be the target of violent attacks from Trump, so much did they orient us on that. And finally, it remained relatively muted during the debate. It is very surprising. Did Trump, at the last moment, prefer to avoid the personal domain?

This story is not over, because the Trump campaign team seems focused on Hunter Biden, and only him. Afterwards it may be despair, if they have nothing more than that …