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Is omicron leading to in-school transmission? Bay Area districts say there’s no way to know

As soon as students poured back into classrooms early this month, Palo Alto schools Superintendent Don Austin knew the pandemic had shifted gears and schools were about to be hit with rising case counts.

He wasn’t wrong. Within days, the number of students reporting positive for COVID-19 spiked to unprecedented levels. Those kids had traveled through crowded halls and eaten lunch with friends, and older students had attended up to six different classes a day.

Austin quickly understood it would be nearly impossible to determine where students or staff got the virus or who they might have exposed — and then send letters home to those who were close contacts. The number of parents getting letters could be in the hundreds at any given school every day.

He decided the district would no longer track cases or send anxiety-inducing exposure notifications home.

Instead, given the highly contagious omicron variant raging across California, he told students and staff to assume they were exposed, to test weekly if desired and definitely if symptomatic and keep coming to school unless sick or positive.

“We said we’re going to stop the insanity on this one,” Austin said Friday, after more than a week under the new policy. “I’m watching my colleagues working their tails off trying to manage this. Why?”

Second-grade teacher Mary Peralta distributes at-home coronavirus testing kits to her students at West Portal Elementary School in San Francisco.

Second-grade teacher Mary Peralta distributes at-home coronavirus testing kits to her students at West Portal Elementary School in San Francisco.

Brontë Wittpenn/The Chronicle

Austin was among the first to take the leap into what has quickly become a new stage of the pandemic for some districts, at least under omicron, where cases in classrooms are a given, quarantine for anyone who is a close contact but asymptomatic is not necessary — even if they’re unvaccinated — and masked students and staff are advised to keep going to school unless they are sick or test positive.

The shift is occurring after a tumultuous two weeks back with teacher and student sickouts, district-shuttered schools, and frantic parents and staff searching for tests and upgraded masks.

On Friday, Marin County health officials, noting that one in 20 to 25 county residents is currently infected with COVID-19, announced a similar recommendation, advising schools to no longer send any notification of exposure, but rather advise parents to simply keep an eye out for symptoms.

The North Bay county also went a step further than Palo Alto, saying students and staff exposed in a classroom setting do not need to test, leaving testing as a recommendation only after exposure in high-risk activities like close-contact sports or child-care settings.

The assumption of the recommendations is “we’re all exposed to COVID,” said county schools Superintendent Mary Jane Burke and that schools are still a safe place to be. “It begins to take us into the endemic vs. the pandemic. I think it’s the right thing.”

At the same time, the inability to track individual cases has left districts and counties unable to count in-school transmissions. Under previous strains, few cases of in-school transmission occurred, reinforcing that in-person instruction presented a relatively low-risk of catching the virus.

Currently, Bay Area counties can’t say whether there are more cases coming from exposure inside classrooms than before or if students and staff are getting the coronavirus in the community.

“The notion that identifying affected individuals, tracking down all their contacts, quarantining all those individuals for some time or testing them is simply not possible,” said Dr. Andy Reinhold, UC Berkeley epidemiologist. “We’re just at a different stage of the pandemic.”

In Alameda County, health officials said it’s too soon to say if in-school transmission is occurring, given that many students and staff got the virus during the break.

Santa Clara County health officer Dr. Sara Cody said Friday the focus should be on vaccination, masking and testing rather than trying to figure out who gave it to whom and who was exposed.

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