A fast-moving tropical cyclone, Elsa, struck the New York City area with torrential rains and strong winds, heading to the east coast on Friday.
The National Hurricane Center said in the morning updates that wind speeds slowed as nighttime measurements on the New Jersey coast reached 78 mph (126 kph) and appeared to be “related to a nearby tornado.” Said.
Heavy rains have caused potential traffic disasters in New York City and its nearby suburbs. And it was already moving from the flood on Thursday, which flooded the roads and at least one subway station. Associated Press reported.. It could rain up to 6 inches (15 centimeters) in some areas on Friday. Tornadoes can occur early on Friday afternoon in parts of Long Island and southeastern New England, according to the Hurricane Center.
Elsa spends about a month on the Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts until November, and the effects of climate change bring new attention to deadly and devastating weather events, especially floods, resulting in an extraordinary storm count. Is expected to take place.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center have a 60% chance of a higher-than-normal season.last year Created a storm record named 30.. In fact, the list of 21 traditional names was exhausted, so many that the Greek alphabet was used only twice. This year is not expected to coincide with the historic wrath of the 2020 storm, but it is still historic.
What do we know about how climate change has contributed to the devastation that makes history?
According to scientists, it is too simple and even lazy to assert that climate change has led to more hurricanes.
However, we know that rising sea surface temperatures due to climate change add fuel to hurricanes. Make a stronger storm This could be strengthened much faster, according to ClimateCentral, which brought together scientists and journalists to report the findings.The· Record breaking The 2020 hurricane season included 10 rapidly intensifying storms. That is, the maximum wind speed increased by more than 35 mph within 24 hours.
Climate change can also lead to worsening floods associated with hurricanes. Warm air retains more water and increases rainfall during tropical cyclones.the study business An average increase of 10% to 15% in tropical cyclone rainfall In a 2 ° C global warming scenario..
And finally, sea level rise also contributes to higher and more dangerous coastal surges. This is news of concern, especially for densely populated and desirable beaches, which are popular among retirees.
One challenge is that tools that improve hurricane forecasting, such as more consistent aircraft reconnaissance and geostationary satellites, will also create storms that may have been missed in the past. Comparison is difficult.
Change calendar?
Experts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the National Hurricane Center are considering advancing the start date of the hurricane season to May 15.
However, it is not yet clear that climate change is causing the early outbreak of the tropical system, so experts are waiting for a redefinition of the June-November hurricane season.
There were several pre-season storms in the 1950s, but this year was the seventh consecutive year of tropical cyclones before June 1.
More clearly, climate-related devastation is increasingly costly in both human and economic damage. In 2020, 22 record 22 meteorological and climatic disasters, each exceeding $ 1 billion, were recorded. Report from NOAA showed.. Aggregates that include everything from hurricanes to wildfires broke the annual record of 16 costly disasters in both 2011 and 2017.
According to NOAA, annual losses in 2020 will exceed $ 95 billion, the fourth highest cost ever. The most expensive events of the year are Hurricane Laura, Wildfires in the West, Midwestern Derecho..
Hurricane homework
For residents and business owners in the hurricane path, a better understanding of flood risks and insurance needs is one way to prepare for these intensifying seasons.
FEMA collect Flood insurance information for each state And you can check out NOAA’s interactivity Multi-billion dollar weather and climate disaster website To find a historic event near you.
Using FEMA data, Natural Resources Defense Council is created Online tools Find repeatedly flooded real estate in each state and county with a National Flood Insurance Program claim.
Pew Charitable Trust Compiled Study on local flood mitigation efforts The National Assembly of State Parliamentarians collects resources on state-level actions on flood issues.
