The first recommendation is to always try to minimize the risk to which you are exposed, in this case official devaluation. In the face of a highly volatile and uncertain scenario, going unhedged is not an option. There are various instruments within the capital market that allow for indirect mitigation of foreign exchange risk, for example: Dollar-denominated bonds, negotiable obligations and general investment funds (FCIs). However, the best tool is Dollar futures.
loss dollar futures They allow leverage of the position, as approximately 20% of the said position is required to be distributed as collateral to buy a $1 contract (equivalent to $1,000). that is, To hedge against an official devaluation, it is not necessary to disburse the entire position, but only 20%.
Currently August futures close $141,6 and in September. according to $151,9, with implied nominal rates of 84.5% and 89.4%. Each position closes on the last trading day of each month and is adjusted against the reference exchange rate communication “A” 3500 (Wholesaler), as of today $129,6.
Another question that companies face in the face of these restrictions is what to do with the available pesos, as they cannot convert them abroad. Then, once the hedging operation is in place, building the portfolio is another matter. The only instruments to rate in pesos close to Rofex’s implied rates are the LEDES or LECER, which yields approx. 60% d tna,
Considering that these securities involve a further risk, which is a risk to the public sector, it is suggested to distribute the available capital as follows:
- 25% in LEDES of the same maturity as the Rofex position;
- 25% in fixed conditions on 50% TNA;
- Remaining 50% guaranteed and distributed in FCI money market or T+0 risk free, with an average return of 39/40%
Once the strategy is in place, even if the accumulated official depreciation for the year is estimated at around 47% and is compared with the level of implied rates of the Rofex futures market and the portfolio yield suggested for the purpose, A positive difference close to 1% or 2% will be obtained as the overall result of the operation.
It is important to highlight that coverage should not be analyzed in terms of profit or loss, but as a decision to reduce the risk to which a person is exposed. For example, this would be like paying for car insurance every month: if the holder doesn’t have an accident, he won’t regret paying. futures hedging strategy works in the same way.
Therefore, in order to achieve certainty in the context of uncertainty, it is advisable to use some of the hedging strategies offered by capital markets, in the above variable prices and regulations on certain operations.
