Elizabeth Soon of PineBridge Investments
During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, recovery was largely in the hands of the governments bailing out troubled companies and providing liquidity to the system.
Today, recovery depends on the containment of a global pandemic and the development of a vaccine. Demand cannot improve until consumer spending and capital expenditures return.
Two elements led to the stockmarket behaving as it did. The first was disruption to supply chain logistics caused by China’s lockdown, which subsequently spread to other parts of the world.
The second was the decline in demand as the virus spread globally, effectively stalling growth.
These two factors, coupled with uncertainty about the future, have subsequently led to knock on effects of continued volatility.
Which emerging markets have been ahead of the coronavirus curve?
Stockmarkets, like humans, do not like uncertainty; unpredictable earnings cause uneasiness and unfortunately, the predictability of earnings still remains opaque.
Amid market panic when investors sell off both weak and financially strong companies, it is prudent to maintain a focus on not just companies that will benefit from this crisis, but those that will survive and thrive. This is where opportunities can be found.
Using past pandemics as a guide, the important question now is, which companies look cheap on value terms and are at prices close to where were want to buy?
In three years’ time, will these companies trade at today’s prices? In essence, now is the time to look for great companies and invest for the long term.
Additionally, the pandemic is expected to bring about an important change in consumer behaviour. For instance, the older generation were forced to learn and adapt to e-commerce away from bricks and mortar stores, and to online wallets and away from cash.
With the journey to recovery already taking place in China, where supply is returning, and intercity and leisure travel showing signs of picking up, we see ample opportunity.
While demand is still fragile, we are careful to uncover companies that are benefiting from this resumption in consumer spending.
Continued analysis of businesses that are gaining market share, keeping their costs down, and increasing investments in research and development will be key in the months ahead.
The beauty of volatility is that it gives us opportunities, and that is why it is never a dull day for a portfolio manager.
Elizabeth Soon is a CFA, portfolio manager and head of Asia ex-Japan equities at PineBridge Investments
