News comment
Release date: 23 March 2022
Clasquin Buy
Baptiste de Leudeville Equity Research Analyst +33 1 53 65 36 55[email protected]
France | Support services
MCap: EUR159.4m
Target Price: Current Price: Up/downside: Market data:
EUR 76.00
Bloomberg: ALCLA FPReuters: ALCLA.PA
EUR 69.20 9.8%
Free float 39%
Avg. daily volume (EURm) 0.2
YTD abs performance -8.9%
22 March 2022
52-week high/low (EUR)
76.00/42.90
2021 results beat expectations
Key points:
-
2021 was an exceptional year for Clasquin, as shown by the 60% increase in GP, the 190% rise in EBIT, the 240% jump in net profit and the 140% hike in gross operating cash flow.
-
2021 results beat our forecasts explained by a mix of stronger top-line activity and more moderate opex growth than expected.
-
Clasquin continued to outperform overall freight market and grab market share.
-
Clasquin is taking advantage of increasing complexity in processing shipments in the context of a disruption of logistics chains worldwide.
-
Generous dividend payout of EUR3.70 per share on 2021 results (2020: EUR1.30).
Exceptional 2021 results: key takeaways
-
Current EBIT almost tripled versus last year to EUR27.5m (2020: EUR9.5m). Net profit more than tripled to EUR17.4m (2020: EUR5.1m).
-
2021 results were significantly higher than expected (KECH: EUR21.5m in current EBIT, EUR12.1m in net profit). This is due to stronger top line and a strong, but more moderate than expected increase in opex (a 40% increase in opex, up 33% vs. 2019 pre-Covid level).
-
Earlier that year, Clasquin had reported a 60% increase in GP driven by a sharp increase in volume (+16% in sea fright, +23% in air freight) and soaring freight rates. Overall, Clasquin took advantage of the increasing complexity in processing shipments in the context of disruption of logistics chain worldwide (congestion at port entrances, extended delivery times, lack of handling staff and truck drivers, shortage of containers and a lack of space on vessels and aircraft).
-
EBIT/GP ratio reached an all-time high (22.6% vs. 12.5% one year ago), 300bps above our expectations (KECH: 19.6%).
-
Clasquin keeps doing better than the overall market in 2021 both in sea freight (+16% in volume vs. 6% est. for the market) and air freight (+23% vs. +17% est. for the market).
-
The sharp increase in working capital (+93%) in direct relation with soaring activity was totally offset by strong cash flow generation, resulting in the stability of net debt at EUR22m (excluding IFRS 16).
-
Clasquin will pay out a generous dividend of EUR3.70 per share, significantly higher than the previous year (2020: EUR1.30) and our estimates (EUR2.60).
-
The company is due to hold a digital presentation this morning at 1100 CET.
Kepler Cheuvreux and the issuer have agreed that Kepler Cheuvreux will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer.
IMPORTANT. Please refer to the back of the report for important information and disclosures.
keplercheuvreux.com
This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France.
Appendix 1: Research framework
|
Investment case |
|
|
|
Clasquin capitalises on its differentiating profile in the |
|
|
freight forwarding industry (medium-sized global player), which enables it to offer end-to-end solutions like industry giants do, but with higher degrees of customisation and flexibility. In recent history, revenue at Clasquin usually have grown |
|
|
faster than that of competitors. Growth at Clasquin is balanced well and diversified. In 2021, the demand and supply conditions looks very |
|
supportive for the freight forwarding industry, including Clasquin. We expect strong double digit growth in volume and gross profit, as well EBIT margin expansion. |
|
|
Catalysts |
|
|
|
Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supply |
|
|
chain conditions. Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital |
|
|
offer). Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade. |
Appendix 2: Company description
|
Valuation methodology |
|
|
|
DCF (7.4% WACC, 3.4% terminal growth, 13.4% EBIT/GP |
|
margin). |
|
|
Risks to our rating |
|
|
|
Lower freight rates due to overcapacity. |
Appendix 3: share price perf.
Last model update: 29 October 2021
Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe flows
ManagementKey shareholders
Hugues Morin, CEO | Philippe Lons, CFO
Free float: 39.00% | Yves Revol: 43.20% | Hugues Morin: 5.04% | Other employees: 12.60%
Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium-size company).
Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3% of GP).
Strong presence in China.
Appendix 4: SWOT analysis Strengths International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).
|
Opportunities |
|
|
|
Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, fine |
|
|
arts). New TMS deployed (2018) to boost productivity in the |
|
|
medium term Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.). |
Weaknesses Limited presence in the US.
Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.
|
Threats |
|
|
|
Slowing worldwide trade (2018-19). |
|
|
High volatility of sea freight rates |
2
Appendix 5: Key financials
|
FY to 31/12 (EUR) |
12/14 |
12/15 |
12/16 |
12/17 |
12/18 |
12/19 |
12/20 |
12/21E |
12/22E |
12/23E |
|
Income Statement (EURm) |
||||||||||
|
Sales |
201.7 |
234.2 |
235.0 |
290.6 |
308.3 |
331.3 |
392.0 |
568.5 |
540.4 |
530.5 |
|
% Change |
1.8% |
16.1% |
0.3% |
23.6% |
6.1% |
7.4% |
18.3% |
45.0% |
-4.9% |
-1.8% |
|
EBITDA adjusted |
4.6 |
8.2 |
7.1 |
7.4 |
9.3 |
13.9 |
16.7 |
29.0 |
22.7 |
20.8 |
|
EBITDA adj. margin (%) |
2.3% |
3.5% |
3.0% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
4.2% |
4.3% |
5.1% |
4.2% |
3.9% |
|
EBIT adjusted |
3.1 |
6.3 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
8.3 |
9.6 |
21.5 |
15.1 |
13.1 |
|
EBIT adj. margin (%) |
1.5% |
2.7% |
1.7% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
3.8% |
2.8% |
2.5% |
|
Net financial items & associates |
0.7 |
1.4 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
-0.4 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
|
Others |
-1.0 |
-1.5 |
-1.1 |
-1.4 |
-1.1 |
-1.7 |
-1.2 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
|
Tax |
-0.9 |
-1.9 |
-1.5 |
-1.9 |
-2.1 |
-3.2 |
-2.6 |
-7.0 |
-4.7 |
-4.0 |
|
Net profit from continuing operations |
1.8 |
4.2 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
12.4 |
8.4 |
7.1 |
|
Net profit from discontinuing activities |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Net profit before minorities |
2.5 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
12.4 |
8.4 |
7.1 |
|
Net profit reported |
2.1 |
3.3 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
12.1 |
8.1 |
6.8 |
|
Net profit adjusted |
2.1 |
3.3 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
12.1 |
8.1 |
6.8 |
|
Cash Flow Statement (EURm) |
||||||||||
|
Levered post tax CF before capex |
6.5 |
8.2 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
4.4 |
16.2 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
25.4 |
22.2 |
|
Capex |
-2.9 |
-2.4 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
-2.5 |
-1.5 |
-3.3 |
-3.2 |
-3.1 |
|
Free cash flow |
3.7 |
5.8 |
-2.2 |
-1.2 |
0.8 |
13.7 |
0.6 |
-2.3 |
22.2 |
19.1 |
|
Acquisitions & divestments |
-1.8 |
-8.5 |
-0.6 |
0.1 |
-1.8 |
-7.1 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Dividend paid |
-2.2 |
-2.1 |
-2.9 |
-1.9 |
-2.6 |
-1.7 |
-0.6 |
-3.6 |
-6.7 |
-4.7 |
|
Others |
-0.4 |
1.5 |
-0.1 |
-1.5 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
-1.7 |
-1.0 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
|
Change in net financial debt |
0.6 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
4.6 |
3.6 |
-4.8 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
-14.5 |
-14.4 |
|
Balance Sheet (EURm) |
||||||||||
|
Intangible assets |
11.4 |
17.3 |
19.1 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
30.6 |
29.6 |
29.0 |
28.4 |
27.6 |
|
Tangible assets |
6.2 |
3.8 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
5.7 |
14.9 |
13.5 |
12.9 |
12.2 |
11.5 |
|
Financial & other non-current assets |
1.8 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
Total shareholders’ equity |
23.3 |
23.8 |
23.2 |
22.9 |
24.5 |
26.8 |
30.9 |
39.7 |
41.4 |
43.8 |
|
Pension provisions |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
Liabilities and provisions |
67.4 |
80.5 |
89.6 |
99.0 |
111.9 |
144.4 |
161.9 |
210.9 |
191.7 |
177.2 |
|
Net debt |
0.7 |
5.2 |
11.6 |
13.6 |
16.8 |
40.0 |
47.8 |
57.8 |
46.4 |
36.2 |
|
Net financial debt |
0.7 |
5.2 |
11.6 |
12.7 |
16.0 |
29.3 |
37.5 |
47.3 |
35.7 |
25.3 |
|
IFRS 16 debt |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.7 |
9.0 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
9.6 |
|
Net working capital |
-1.1 |
0.2 |
4.0 |
8.7 |
11.3 |
22.1 |
35.7 |
56.8 |
48.6 |
42.4 |
|
Invested capital |
16.6 |
21.3 |
28.3 |
33.3 |
39.0 |
67.7 |
78.8 |
98.8 |
89.2 |
82.6 |
|
Per share data (EUR) |
||||||||||
|
EPS adjusted |
0.93 |
1.45 |
0.69 |
1.08 |
1.21 |
1.68 |
2.22 |
5.27 |
3.50 |
2.93 |
|
EPS adj and fully diluted |
0.93 |
1.45 |
0.69 |
1.08 |
1.21 |
1.68 |
2.21 |
5.24 |
3.48 |
2.92 |
|
% Change |
-3.4% |
57.0% |
-52.4% |
56.5% |
12.3% |
38.1% |
31.8% |
137.1% |
-33.5% |
-16.2% |
|
EPS reported |
0.93 |
1.45 |
0.69 |
1.08 |
1.21 |
1.68 |
2.22 |
5.27 |
3.50 |
2.93 |
|
Cash flow per share |
2.85 |
3.57 |
0.58 |
1.04 |
1.92 |
7.01 |
0.91 |
0.43 |
11.02 |
9.63 |
|
Book value per share |
9.22 |
9.42 |
8.78 |
8.57 |
9.31 |
9.53 |
11.68 |
15.37 |
15.95 |
16.85 |
|
Dividend per share |
0.80 |
1.25 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.65 |
0.00 |
1.30 |
2.63 |
1.75 |
1.47 |
|
Number of shares, YE (m) |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
2.30 |
|
Ratios |
||||||||||
|
ROE (%) |
10.1% |
15.6% |
7.6% |
12.5% |
13.6% |
17.9% |
21.0% |
38.9% |
22.4% |
17.9% |
|
ROIC (%) |
na |
22.8% |
9.3% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.1% |
8.9% |
15.5% |
10.3% |
9.7% |
|
ND(F+IFRS16) / EBITDA (x) |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
|
Gearing (%) |
3.0% |
21.9% |
50.0% |
55.7% |
65.2% |
109.2% |
121.3% |
119.0% |
86.2% |
57.7% |
|
Valuation |
||||||||||
|
P/E adjusted |
27.7 |
20.3 |
42.9 |
30.7 |
30.1 |
20.6 |
13.8 |
13.1 |
19.8 |
23.6 |
|
P/E adjusted and fully diluted |
27.7 |
20.3 |
42.9 |
30.7 |
30.1 |
20.6 |
13.9 |
13.2 |
19.9 |
23.7 |
|
P/BV |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
2.6 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
|
P/CF |
9.0 |
8.2 |
50.8 |
31.9 |
19.0 |
4.9 |
33.6 |
na |
6.3 |
7.2 |
|
Dividend yield (%) |
3.1% |
4.2% |
2.7% |
2.4% |
1.8% |
0.0% |
4.2% |
3.8% |
2.5% |
2.1% |
|
FCF yield (%) |
6.2% |
8.6% |
-3.2% |
-1.6% |
1.0% |
17.1% |
0.8% |
-1.5% |
14.0% |
12.0% |
|
EV/Sales |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
EV/EBITDA adj. |
13.5 |
9.1 |
11.7 |
12.6 |
11.2 |
9.0 |
7.4 |
7.7 |
9.3 |
9.7 |
|
EV/EBIT adj. |
19.9 |
11.9 |
20.6 |
17.1 |
18.0 |
15.1 |
12.7 |
10.3 |
13.9 |
15.4 |
|
3 |
Last model update: 29 October 2021
Market data date: 22 March 2022
Research ratings and important disclosures
The term “KEPLER CHEUVREUX” shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see
“Regulators” table below).
The investment recommendation(s) referred to in this report was (were) completed on 23/03/2022 7:17 (GMT) and was first disseminated on 23/03/2022 7:21 (GMT).
Unless otherwise stated, all prices are aligned with the “Market Data date” on the front page of this report.
Disclosure checklist – Potential conflict of interests
|
Company Name |
ISIN |
Disclosure |
|
Clasquin |
FR0004152882 |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX and the issuer have agreed that KEPLER CHEUVREUX will produce and disseminate investment |
|
research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer |
Organizational and administrative arrangements to avoid and prevent conflicts of interests
KEPLER CHEUVREUX promotes and disseminates independent investment research and have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The KEPLER CHEUVREUX research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of KEPLER CHEUVREUX Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of KEPLER CHEUVREUX or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.
It is Kepler Cheuvreux’ policy not to disclose the rating to the issuer before publication and dissemination. Nevertheless, this document, in whole or in part, and with the exclusion of ratings, target prices and any other information that could lead to determine its valuation, may have been provided to the issuer prior to publication and dissemination, solely with the aim of verifying factual accuracy.
Please refer to www.keplercheuvreux.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.
Analyst disclosures
The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity/Credit Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover. Name of the Research Analyst(s): Baptiste de Leudeville
Regulation AC – Analyst Certification: Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.
Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst certifies that he is acting independently and impartially from KEPLER CHEUVREUX shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any KEPLER CHEUVREUX activities.
Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst’s(s’)
compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst(s) in the research report. The research analyst’s(s’) compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.
Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KEPLER CHEUVREUX, which is a non-US affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity/Credit Research Analysts employed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Research ratings
Kepler Cheuvreux rating split as of 23 March 2022
|
Rating Breakdown |
A |
B |
|
Buy |
62% |
72% |
|
Hold |
30% |
20% |
|
Reduce |
5% |
0% |
|
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer |
3% |
8% |
|
Total |
100% |
100% |
|
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux |
||
|
A: % of all research recommendations |
||
|
B: % of issuers to which material services of investment firms are supplied |
||
|
12 months rating history |
The below table shows the history of recommendations and target prices changes issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX research department (Equity and Credit) over a 12 months period.
|
Company Name |
Date Business Line |
Rating |
Target Price |
Closing Price |
|
Clasquin (EUR) |
02/09/2021 08:45 Equity Research |
Buy |
65.00 |
57.80 |
|
29/10/2021 07:02 Equity Research |
Buy |
76.00 |
71.00 |
Credit research does not issue target prices. Left intentionally blank.
Please refer to the following link https://research.keplercheuvreux.com/disclosure/stock/ for a full list of investment recommendations issued over the last 12 months by the author(s) and contributor(s) of this report on any financial instruments.
Equity research
Rating system
KEPLER CHEUVREUX equity research ratings and target prices are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. A rating on a stock is set after assessing the twelve months expected upside or downside of the stock derived from the analyst’s fair value (target price) and in the light of the risk profile of the company. Ratings are defined as follows:
Buy: The minimum expected upside is 10% over next 12 months (the minimum required upside could be higher in light of the company ‘s risk profile).
4
Hold: The expected upside is below 10% (the expected upside could be higher in light of the company’s risk profile). Reduce: There is an expected downside.
Accept offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offer price is considered to be fairly valuing the shares. Reject offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offered price is considered to be undervaluing the shares.
Under review: An event occurred with an expected significant impact on our target price and we cannot issue a recommendation before having processed that new information and/or without a new share price reference.
Not rated: The stock is not covered.
Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations. Due to share prices volatility, ratings and target prices may occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent with the above definition.
Valuation methodology and risks
Unless otherwise stated in this report, target prices and investment recommendations are determined based on fundamental research methodologies and relies on commonly used valuation methodologies such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), valuation multiples comparison with history and peers, Dividend Discount Model (DDM).
Valuation methodologies and models can be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors (such as the price of commodities, exchange rates and interest rates) as well as other external factors including taxation, regulation and geopolitical changes (such as tax policy changes, strikes or war). In addition, investors’ confidence and market sentiment can affect the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe.
Unless otherwise stated, models used are proprietary. Additional information about the proprietary models used in this report is accessible on request.
KEPLER CHEUVREUX’ equity research policy is to update research rating when it deems appropriate in the light of new findings, markets development and any relevant information that can impact the analyst’s view and opinion.
Regulators
|
Location |
Regulator |
Abbreviation |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX S.A – France |
Autorité des Marchés Financiers |
AMF |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Madrid branch |
Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores |
CNMV |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Frankfurt branch |
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht |
BaFin |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Milan branch |
Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa |
CONSOB |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Amsterdam branch |
Autoriteit Financiële Markten |
AFM |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX (Switzerland) SA, Zurich branch |
Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority |
FINMA |
|
KEPLER CAPITAL MARKETS, Inc. |
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority |
FINRA |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, London branch |
Financial Conduct Authority |
FCA |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Vienna branch |
Austrian Financial Services Authority |
FMA |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Stockholm branch |
Finansinspektionen |
FI |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX Oslo branch |
Finanstilsynet |
NFSA |
|
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Bruxelles branch |
Autorité des Services et Marchés Financiers |
FSMA |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.
Beta Profile:
5
