In 2003 Shia LaBeouf, Sigourney Weaver and Jon Voight made the movie “Holes.”
Bears GM Ryan Poles is starring in a real life sequel as the team approaches his first draft.
There are holes everywhere to fill in his roster and in his team’s ability to fill them.
It’s going to be a challenge for the Bears to fill all of these holes in this draft after their free agency plan had two holes of its own. Those would be the failure to get defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi signed and take restricted free agent guard Ryan Bates away from the Buffalo Bills.
Here are the biggest problems Poles faces as the Bears enter the final countdown before the 2022 NFL Draft, the issues Poles must strategize to overcome.
Starting and Roster Holes
The Bears are missing starters at right guard, possibly tackle, a one-gap starting defensive tackle, a safety, an X-receiver and a viable strong-side linebacker. They lack any depth at cornerback and really need at least one starter at the position to come out of this draft. They also need one or more offensive linemen, a defensive tackle and end, a tight end and another safety for depth. It wouldn’t hurt to have another slot cornerback candidate because recently acquired Tavon Young has a history of injuries.
It’s too many holes to fill with a draft and anyone of quality in free agency who could have done it has been gobbled up by now.
The Solution: Undrafted free agents they have been lining up already will need to fill a void like a higher quality draft pick would at several positions.
Insufficient Picks
When a new GM takes over, the ideal situation is at least a full complement of picks but really more than one per round is necessary. This first year of a rebuild is when a coaching staff wnats as many rookies as possible. With a huge free agency expected by the Bears in 2023 due to an enormous amount of cap space, it would be ideal to have as many draft picks as possible who play so that the personnel department knows where to focus its energies in the future. The Bears don’t have seven picks. They need more picks.
The solution: Trading down. Poles should be dealing down at No. 48 in an attempt to plug the gap in Round 4 but also dealing down to find either another pick in Rounds 4-6 or even Round 7, where they also have no pick. It’s not easy to produce these extra picks out of thin air or by simply trading down. Poles is going to need to throw a veteran or two into his pursuit of extra picks. One who comes to mind is quarterback Nick Foles, who has been shopped openly but to no avail. Maybe they can find a seventh for him. The other player is defensive end Robert Quinn, who could fetch more in return but might be a player they view as an essential contributor in their new scheme.
The Early Hole
It was Ryan Pace’s choice to give up a first-round pick again in order to move up and select Justin Fields, not Poles’ choice.
While getting Fields set off a euphoria among Bears fans, it’s time to pay the piper and watch other teams pick. Sadly, the Bears are very experienced with this. It’s the third time in four years they’ve had to go without a first-round pick. Fields is their first-round pick? He was their first-round pick last year.
The first round is a team’s best shot at an instant starter or even star.
The tradeoff of not having that possible pick better be a sure-fire star. They got this with Khalil Mack and no one they would have drafted in Round 1 with either of the two first-rounders they gave up for Mack produced anything remotely close to the 30 sacks or 14 forced fumbles he gave them that made two playoff berths possible.
You don’t commonly find players like DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, Micah Parsons, Jaelan Phillips or Rashawn Slater in Round 2.
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Teams that go without first-round picks for extended periods can expect to use up their salary cap for expensive free agents, and the Bears have.
The solution: There isn’t one for Poles in this situation. He’ll just have to sit and watch players go off the board. Trading up to Round 1 is not a solution when they have so many holes and so few picks already. The solution going forward is not to trade those first-round picks, but it won’t help them in this draft. The 39th and 48th will have to do, and they should probably trade the 48th to get extra picks in Round 3 or 4. At least this year, they need quantity as much as perceived quality.
The Draft Gap
It’s not so much of a hole as it is a gap. They must contend with the Grand Canyon of draft holes, going from pick No. 71 in Round 3 until pick No. 148 in Round 5 without a selection.
Poles must find a way to plug that hole or to compensate somehow.
Why is this important?
It was in this same gap where the Lions found Amon-Ra St. Brown and his 90 rookie receptions, the Titans took slot cornerback Elijah Molden and the Ravens selected cornerback Brandon Stephens. Instead of Alec Ogletree, a street free agent who started almost all season, the Bears could have found Ernest Jones. He had two interceptions and 61 tackles at linebacker as a rookie for the world champion Rasms.
There are always players in that gap. It’s where the Bills found receiver Gabriel Davis and the Ravens selected All-Pro return man/receiver Devin Duvernay in 2020.
The Bears faced the same type of issue in 2020 and Ryan Pace made up for the absence of picks from the second until the fifth round by selecting Darnell Mooney and Trevis Gipson, as well as Kindle Vildor. Counting on Poles to come up with players who make a difference like Mooney and Gipson is asking a lot in Round 5.
The solution: Moving back in Round 2 or into Round 3 should let them net at least a fourth and possibly another pick. They will avoid going without a pick in Round 4 and could make Round 5 look like it did for them in the 2020 draft with a move of this type. The Bears would serve themselves better by finding another fourth-round pick in a trade for a current player or players on their roster or other draft picks.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
