Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org
Supply Chain Risk

Fodder crises ‘twice as likely’ in coming decades

Events such as the fodder crisis of 2018 are twice as likely to occur in the coming decades, according to research from lecturers at University College Cork.

In 2018, Ireland saw exceptional rainfall in the spring, which resulted in the exhaustion of winter fodder, and unprecedented months of summer without rain, resulting in major issues for farmers and a severe feeding deficit.

Research from ClimAg, a programme based at University College Cork (UCC), showed that events such as the fodder crisis of 2018 are twice as likely to occur under mid-21st-century conditions.

ClimAg is a three-year research project funded by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency under the Climate Change Research Programme.

The project has seen three UCC researchers examine past fodder crises, including the 2018 dry summer, and put them into the context of long-term climate change.

ClimAg researchers published their findings in November last year in a paper titled ‘Risk of Drought-Related ‘Fodder Crises’ in Irish Agriculture under mid-21st Century Climatic Conditions’.

ClimAg’s report explained that the fodder crisis of 2018 emerged in parallel with a prolonged and severe drought and resulted in acute shortages of fodder across most of the country, particularly in the south and southeast of the country.

A pattern of much warmer than average conditions, with significantly reduced rainfall totals, persisted between May and mid-July that year.

The report revealed that in Enniscorthy, Co Wexford, a rainfall total of 89.3mm was recorded during May, June, and July in 2018 compared to the 1981-2010 long-term average of 241.7mm.

Significant soil moisture deficits developed by mid-June, with deficits in the south-east reaching over 95mm in places.

Events similar to that of 2018 may increase in frequency and severity by the mid-21st century due to seasonal shifts in precipitation, the report warned, highlighting predictions of more frequent summer heatwaves, particularly in the south of the country, along with increased occurrence of dry periods and heavy precipitation events.

Initial results from ClimAg show that distributions of 2041 to 2070 May-June-July rainfall are lower than the 1981 to 2010 historic average, making events such as the 2018 fodder crisis more probable in this future climate.

Speaking to this newspaper, ClimAg researcher and UCC lecturer Paul Leahy said: “We looked at the 2018 fodder crisis, mainly impacting the south-east.

“We found that such events are going to be twice as likely under mid-21st century conditions as they are today.

“Initial results show that May-June-July total rainfall similar to that of 2018 is approximately twice as likely to occur in the climate of 2041-2070 than it was in 1981-2010,” he added.

Mr Leahy also highlighted the ongoing situation in Ukraine and the possible impact this will have on production and supply in the farming sector.

“We may well end up with a human-caused crisis in production this year due to the war in Ukraine, but this time the shortages may be in supplemental feeds.

“If a poor fodder season was to coincide with this, it would be a very difficult situation for dairy and beef farmers.”

ClimAg’s research will allow for risk-informed agriculture management practices to be developed, according to a summary of the report.

Related posts

Treasurys Strengthen Along With Trade Concerns

scceu

Recognizing LGBTQ+ Inclusion With Pride of Aramark and OUTstanding Community Partner Awards

scceu

Itafos Provides Update on Itafos Farim Engineering and Construction, Announces Termination of EPCM Agreement With Lycopodium

scceu