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Shipping traffic along Russia’s Arctic waters continues to grow. Year-over-year tonnage increased by 5.7 percent from 32.9m to almost 35m tons. About two-thirds of cargo volume originates from the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil with the remaining share coming from bulk shipping and general cargo.
Over the past decade traffic has increased more than 15-fold, with the largest increase coming in 2017 and 2018 when Novatek’s Yamal LNG facility began production. Similar jumps in volume are expected in the coming two to three years when the company’s Arctic LNG 2 facility will add an additional 20m tons per year in LNG production transported in tankers via the NSR.
According to Rosatom, Russia’s operator of nuclear icebreakers and the government agency primarily responsible for the development of the NSR, cargo volume is expected to hit 80m tons in 2024 and 110m tons by 2030. These goals were first laid out in a presidential decree from 2018 in which President Putin called for the NSR to be developed into a global transport route.
Such figures will largely depend on Novatek and Gazprom successfully constructing and taking into operation future hydrocarbon projects and Rosatomflot’s nuclear icebreakers being able to keep the route open even during the heart of winter to ensure year-round navigation.
Cargo volume continues to grow
Between 2012 and 2021 cargo volume has grown rapidly from around 2m tons to 35m tons today. For 2022 Russian officials expect around 40m tons of cargo along the route.
